Good Morning, Asia. Here’s the latest in market news:
Welcome to the Asia Morning Briefing, your daily digest of key stories during U.S. hours, along with a summary of market movements and analyses. For a comprehensive look at U.S. markets, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
As Hong Kong starts its trading day, Bitcoin is hovering around $109K. Traders are processing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments indicating that another rate cut isn’t guaranteed, which has dampened interest in BTC ETFs and other riskier assets.
According to Polymarket traders, there’s now a 71% probability for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, a significant drop from around 90% prior to Powell’s remarks. The likelihood of no change has risen to 26%, showing the rapid reassessment of expectations following the press conference.
The latest weekly report from CryptoQuant indicates a notable decline in U.S. investor interest in crypto. Spot bitcoin ETFs experienced a seven-day average outflow of 281 BTC, marking one of the weakest performances since April, while ether inflows have nearly stopped. Coinbase premiums for both assets have nearly flattened, and the CME futures basis has reached multi-year lows, suggesting both institutional and retail traders are locking in profits instead of increasing their positions.
On-chain analytics from Glassnode reflect a similar decline in confidence. Bitcoin continues to struggle below the short-term holders’ cost basis near $113,000, with long-term holders offloading about 104,000 BTC each month. Transfers from these wallets to exchanges have risen to $293 million daily, indicating that experienced investors are taking profits amid weaker demand.
The broader crypto market also mirrored this trend. Solana dropped 8% on Thursday, as previously reported by CoinDesk, falling to $186 despite the launch of the first U.S. spot Solana ETFs.
Bitwise’s BSOL attracted $116 million within two days, while Grayscale’s GSOL garnered $1.4 million; however, the token’s price decline has erased its annual gains. The sentiment was further diminished by large on-chain transfers from Jump Crypto to Galaxy Digital, stirring speculation about portfolio adjustments.
With stable volatility metrics and balanced positions, traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s next actions. Currently, Polymarket traders assign a 55% probability to no change, a slight increase since Powell’s recent statements.
Should the U.S. government officially reopen, and if data emerges indicating a worse economic outlook than anticipated, Powell may reconsider his stance. Crypto traders will be keenly observing this situation.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin dipped around 5% in the last 24 hours, trading at approximately $109,800, as traders reacted to Powell’s hawkish comments and declining U.S. ETF inflows.
ETH: Ether fell 1.8% to about $3,850, continuing its month-long downward trend as U.S. spot ETF inflows diminished to nearly zero and futures demand weakened.
Gold: Gold decreased by $16.50 to $3,984.70, and silver dropped to $47.89, as Powell’s hawkish remarks following the Fed’s rate cut dashed hopes for further easing and increased Treasury yields.
Nikkei 225: Asian stocks advanced on Friday, following an agreement between Trump and Xi to reduce trade tensions in South Korea, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbing over 1% to achieve a new record.
