The price of Bitcoin has slipped into a technical bear market, decreasing approximately 30% from its peak of $126,250 to the current value of $89,000.
Summary
- Bearish chart patterns have emerged for Bitcoin, suggesting a significant decline in the weeks ahead.
- The Federal Reserve is set to release the minutes from its most recent monetary policy meeting at 2 p.m. EST.
- A recent Polymarket survey with over $1 million in assets forecasts that the Fed will implement two rate cuts, while some anticipate three cuts.
Bitcoin (BTC) has displayed several bearish chart patterns, indicating a possible deeper decline in the near future as we await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
The minutes, scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, will offer additional insights into the previous meeting, during which the Federal Reserve opted to reduce interest rates by 0.25% for the third time this year.
Officials have lowered rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% and hinted at one more potential cut in the coming year. However, many analysts believe further cuts may be forthcoming.
A Polymarket survey, with over $1 million at stake, predicts two rate cuts, with others foreseeing three.
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price Amid Bearish Patterns
The weekly chart indicates that Bitcoin initiated a bull run from $15,460 on November 22, reaching an all-time high of $126,200 in October this year.
Signs are emerging that this bull run may be concluding, as it has created several bearish chart patterns. Notably, a rising wedge has formed, consisting of two ascending and converging trendlines.
The coin is currently establishing a bearish pennant pattern, comprising a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle pattern. The two triangles are approaching their convergence, suggesting an imminent bearish breakout.
Oscillators are also showing a bearish divergence pattern. For example, the Percentage Price Oscillator peaked in April of last year and has recently dipped below the zero line. The Relative Strength Index has fallen below the neutral mark of 50 and is trending downwards.
Crucially, the coin has dropped below the Supertrend indicator, which turned red in November. The last occurrence of this was in January 2022, resulting in a decline from $52,000 to $15,460.
Consequently, it is likely that Bitcoin may experience a significant bearish breakout, potentially targeting the key support level of $74,368, its lowest point recorded in April last year. A decline below this threshold would indicate further downside risk, likely targeting the psychological level at $70,000.
Predictions for 2026
After a year filled with miscalculated projections—including Chamath Palihapitiya’s widely discussed prediction of “Bitcoin by October 2025”—trust in price forecasts has waned. As 2025 closes, “target-price narratives” have shifted from prophecy to cautious considerations, with analysts opting for scenario ranges over bold predictions.
A roundup from Wu Blockchain reveals that forecasts vary dramatically—ranging from six-figure highs spurred by ETF inflows and institutional demand to potential sharp declines if macro conditions tighten or technical indicators fail.
- Bullish sentiments suggest Bitcoin could rise anywhere from $150,000 to $250,000, bolstered by spot ETFs, Wall Street engagement, and more lenient monetary policies.
- Conversely, bearish predictions caution against a potential decline to $70,000 or even $60,000.
A common consensus? Bitcoin’s future in 2026 will depend more on liquidity, regulation, and the willingness of institutions to buy in when market conditions become unfavorable.
