Key takeaways:
BTC derivatives pricing shows a lack of confidence in surpassing $100,000, reflecting broader economic uncertainty and Bitcoin’s underperformance against gold.
Although liquidity has improved due to Federal Reserve actions, large investors remain cautious, indicating doubts about a sustainable Bitcoin breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives markets are increasingly doubtful about the cryptocurrency’s ability to maintain bullish momentum, despite the US Federal Reserve’s shift towards an accommodative monetary policy. Traders are cautious due to risk aversion amidst unpredictable economic conditions and Bitcoin’s ongoing struggles compared to gold.
The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to keep interest rates capped at 3.75% was largely anticipated, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone during the subsequent press conference. He noted the continuing risks associated with a weak labor market and persistent inflation. Interestingly, two Fed members voted for keeping rates at 4%, which is a notable divide for a committee known for its internal cohesion.
More importantly, the Fed announced it would start purchasing short-term government bonds to “help manage liquidity levels.” This initial $40 billion initiative marks a significant policy shift from recent years, characterized by a gradual reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which now stands at $6.6 trillion after peaking at $9 trillion in 2022.
This infusion of liquidity allows banks to lend more, promoting credit growth, enhancing business investment, and facilitating consumer borrowing during economic slowdowns.
Bitcoin options suggest 70% likelihood BTC stays below $100,000
The $100,000 BTC call option indicates a 70% probability that Bitcoin will be at or below $100,000 by January 30, based on the Black & Scholes model.
To secure the right to purchase Bitcoin at the fixed price of $100,000 on January 30, buyers must pay a premium of $3,440 upfront. In contrast, this call option was priced at $12,700 just a month ago. This financial instrument essentially functions as insurance and becomes worthless if Bitcoin ends below the strike price. However, potential profits for the holder remain limitless as long as the market decisively surpasses $100,000.
Notably, Bitcoin’s monthly options expiry in January coincides with the next FOMC meeting on January 28. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 24% chance to another interest rate cut in January. Uncertainty has increased following the government funding impasse in November, which limited insights into US employment and inflation metrics.
The stock market stands to gain directly from the Federal Reserve’s expansionary policy, as companies expect reduced capital costs and more accessible consumer financing. Conversely, Bitcoin’s reactions tend to be less predictable, as investors moving away from safe short-term government bonds may not consider the cryptocurrency a dependable store of value.
As of Wednesday, yields on the US five-year Treasury were at 3.72%, down from 4.1% six months prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 13% increase during the same timeframe. Traders are concerned that the rising US government debt might weaken the dollar and exacerbate inflationary pressures, making equities more appealing despite fears of inflated valuations.
What could trigger a Bitcoin rally remains unclear, though the increasing costs of default protection in the artificial intelligence sector might lead traders to decrease their stock exposure.
Currently, Bitcoin whales and market makers are highly skeptical of a sustained movement above $100,000, irrespective of the more favorable conditions created by the Fed’s policy change.
Related: Conflicted Fed cuts rates but Bitcoin’s ‘fragile range’ pins BTC under $100K
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