Key takeaways:
BTC derivatives pricing suggests low confidence in surpassing $100,000, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty and Bitcoin’s lackluster performance compared to gold.
Although liquidity has improved due to Federal Reserve actions, whales are still cautious, hinting at doubts about a sustainable Bitcoin breakout.
Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives markets are increasingly doubting that the cryptocurrency can maintain bullish momentum, despite a shift towards a looser monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders remain hesitant about risk appetite amid economic uncertainty and Bitcoin’s relative underperformance compared to gold.
The Fed’s decision on Wednesday to maintain interest rates at 3.75% was largely anticipated, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopting a cautious tone during the post-meeting press conference. Powell emphasized ongoing risks related to labor market weakness and persistent inflation. However, two Fed members voted to keep rates at 4%, reflecting an unusual divergence for a committee that typically displays strong consensus.
More notable was the Fed’s announcement to start purchasing short-term government bonds to “help manage liquidity levels.” The initial $40 billion program authorized on Wednesday marks a significant shift from recent years, characterized by a steady reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet, which now stands at $6.6 trillion after peaking at $9 trillion in 2022.
This additional liquidity enhances the cash banks can lend, supporting credit growth, stimulating business investment, and promoting consumer borrowing during periods of slowing economic momentum.
Bitcoin options suggest 70% chance BTC remains below $100,000
The $100,000 BTC call option suggests a 70% likelihood that Bitcoin will stay at or below $100,000 by January 30, based on the Black & Scholes model.
To reserve the option to purchase Bitcoin at a fixed price of $100,000 on January 30, buyers must pay an upfront premium of $3,440. By comparison, this same call option was priced at $12,700 just a month ago. This instrument acts as insurance and expires worthless if Bitcoin settles below the strike price, yet the upside for the holder remains unlimited as long as the market moves decisively above $100,000.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s monthly options expiration in January occurs just two days after the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 24% probability to another interest rate cut in January. The uncertainty has heightened following the government funding shutdown in November, which limited transparency regarding US employment and inflation data.
The stock market directly gains from the Fed’s expansionary stance, as companies look forward to a lower cost of capital and more accessible consumer financing. In contrast, Bitcoin tends to react less predictably since investors moving out of safe short-term government bonds may not view the cryptocurrency as a dependable store of value.
Yields on the US 5-year Treasury were at 3.72% on Wednesday, down from 4.10% six months prior, while the S&P 500 saw a 13% increase during the same timeframe. Traders are concerned that growing US government debt might weaken the dollar and exacerbate inflationary pressures, which could make equities more attractive despite worries about inflated valuations.
What could trigger a Bitcoin rally remains unclear, but the rising cost of default protection in the artificial intelligence sector could lead traders to decrease their stock exposure.
For now, Bitcoin whales and market makers remain very skeptical about a sustained rise above $100,000, even as the Fed’s policy shift creates more favorable circumstances.
Related: Conflicted Fed cuts rates but Bitcoin’s ‘fragile range’ pins BTC under $100K
This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. While we strive to present accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information contained in this article. This article may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be held liable for any losses or damages arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence prior to making any decisions. While we aim to provide precise and timely information, Cointelegraph does not ensure the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information within this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and Cointelegraph will not be liable for any losses or damages arising from your reliance on this information.
