Key insights:
Bitcoin could face a correction towards $96,500–$100,000 if the $110,000 support fails.
Onchain and technical indicators suggest a healthy mid-cycle correction, rather than a complete trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery following a significant weekend drop showed signs of waning on Tuesday.
The leading cryptocurrency fell 4.65% to approximately $110,000, reflecting a global equity downturn after China imposed restrictions on five US firms related to South Korea’s largest shipbuilder, cautioning against further retaliation.
In 2025, Bitcoin’s $110,000 level has frequently alternated between resistance and support. Previous rejections led to declines ranging from 19–30%, while rebounds from this zone post-July resulted in 12–15% increases.
Let’s analyze how low BTC might drop if the $110,000 support fails.
Bitcoin’s broadening wedge indicates $100,000
Various analyses indicate that the likelihood of the BTC price dropping towards $100,000 increases if the $110,000 support level is breached.
This includes a “giant bullish channel” highlighted by chartist BitBull, showcasing BTC price oscillating within a broadening wedge.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was situated in the midst of a correction phase after testing the upper trendline of the wedge as resistance. Historically, such corrections have typically exhausted near the channel’s lower trendline, which aligns with the $100,000-$103,000 range.
This area also corresponds with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, marked by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line, reinforcing its significance as a potential target zone.
BTC metric points to $96,500 target (or lower)
Bitcoin is currently trading beneath its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band; orange) near $119,000, as per Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.
The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an onchain model that measures how much the current market price deviates from Bitcoin’s “fair value,” based on the amounts most holders paid for their coins (the realized price).
Historically, when BTC loses this +0.5σ band as support, it typically tends to revert towards the mean band (yellow), which is currently around $96,500.
A similar “mean reversion” occurred during the December 2024–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin dropped from the +0.5σ level (~66,980) to the mean band (~$53,900) before making a sharp recovery.
Related: 3 reasons why a Bitcoin rally to $125K might be postponed
This fractal indicates that the current situation may just be another cooling-off phase within a larger bull market, a reset to eliminate excess leverage and inflated valuations before the next upward move.
However, falling below the mean reversion target could risk triggering a bear market, with the next downside target around $74,000.
This article is not intended as investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
