As Bitcoin struggles in the fourth quarter of 2025, investors have found many reasons to reduce their holdings. Among these are a particular group of investors: short-term holders (STHs), who have been under pressure for a sustained period.
STH MVRV in Severe Decline for 60 Days Straight
In a recent update on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted an intriguing view of the current market situation regarding Bitcoin’s most active investors — the short-term holders. Kesmeci’s commentary centers on the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio.
This metric serves as a comparison of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, allowing for an assessment of whether short-term investors are, on average, experiencing gains or losses.
Related Reading
Readings below the neutral threshold of “1” generally suggest that STHs are at a loss. Depending on the severity of this reading, it may also hint at potential capitulation events. Conversely, values above 1 indicate that short-term investors are in profit, with higher values increasing the likelihood of profit-taking activities.
In his X post, Kesmeci pointed out that the STH MVRV has remained in deep red for 60 consecutive days. He noted that the short-term investors in Bitcoin are currently undergoing the most significant “patience test” they have faced in 2025.
Historically, extended periods of negative MVRV readings have been associated with increased market stress. Given that the most reactive investor group is involved, Bitcoin’s price may experience the impact of capitulation-induced sell-offs.
However, a contrasting scenario could also occur. If bearish pressure dissipates entirely, sustained negative readings might indicate an impending market stabilization.
Bitcoin Remains Below 111-Day SMA — Implications for Price
To support his on-chain findings, Kesmeci also provided a significant technical observation regarding Bitcoin’s price movements. He noted that Bitcoin has been trading below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) during this timeframe.
This correspondence between on-chain metrics and technical analysis solidifies a clear narrative; Bitcoin is currently either in a consolidatory or corrective phase, contradicting the notion that the leading cryptocurrency may be on the verge of a substantial upward trend.
Related Reading
Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin’s future path remains uncertain. Broader macro events, along with renewed spot demand, could play a crucial role in the cryptocurrency’s performance moving forward.
This market dynamic could ultimately decide whether BTC descends further or embarks on a recovery trajectory. As of now, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $87,380, with minimal fluctuations observed in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
