The price of bitcoin has now entered the euphoric phase of this bull cycle. While predicting the exact peak is challenging, the best on-chain indicators suggest significantly higher price targets for bitcoin than most people anticipate.
Bitcoin Price Cycle Master
One of the most historically dependable tools is the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which outlines undervalued, fair value, and overvalued areas based on on-chain fundamentals. In previous cycles, the bitcoin price frequently pushed beyond the aggressively valued line and touched or surpassed the overvalued limit at the peak. Currently, that overvalued line stands near $260,000, while a more plausible upper target for bitcoin might be around $162,000.
Bitcoin Price Short-Term Holder MVRV
The short-term holder MVRV ratio assesses the profit that newer investors hold in relation to their average entry price. It serves as one of the clearest indicators of market sentiment and overheated conditions, as it monitors the actions of traders who acquired bitcoin in the last few months.
Throughout previous cycles, whenever the short-term holder MVRV approached 1.7, the bitcoin price was nearing its final surge before significant corrections ensued. In the current market, this same 1.7 reading would suggest a bitcoin price between $180,000 and $195,000, depending on how realized prices develop. As this metric trends towards that level, it offers a definitive, data-supported signal that the market is entering late-stage conditions.
Bitcoin Price Lengthening Cycle
The 200WMA Heatmap provides structural context; many previous peaks occurred when the 200WMA crossed its former ATH. Projecting forward, that crossover might take place around mid-2026. If this cycle extends due to ongoing ETF inflows, institutional buying, or capital shifts from other asset classes, the overvalued and aggressively valued lines estimate the bitcoin price could reach as high as $300,000 to $340,000.
Bitcoin Price Confluence
When combining the Cycle Master model, MVRV bands, and the 200WMA heat map, the strongest area of agreement emerges around $180,000. This zone is significant as it represents the intersection of reasonable overvaluation and historical euphoria levels. Although more extreme scenarios still exist, they necessitate an extension of the current cycle beyond common expectations.
The bitcoin price may not achieve these targets instantly. However, past trends indicate that when it does pivot, markets tend to move rapidly. As we approach the final stage of this bull run, understanding these modeled bitcoin price peaks provides valuable guardrails for managing risk and expectations.
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Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
