Key Insights:
The SSR RSI for stablecoins shows a “buy” signal, indicating robust buying power.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin have amassed 298,000 BTC.
A green close for Bitcoin in September historically leads to Q4 rallies, often averaging 78% gains.
In September, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility but closed the month 5% higher at $114,000 on Tuesday.
Analysts now point to several crucial indicators suggesting that the recent rebound from $108,000 might indicate a forthcoming “big move.”
Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Metric Signals “Buy”
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which assesses stablecoins’ purchasing power relative to Bitcoin, has decreased, with its RSI hitting a four-month low.
Related: Pro Bitcoin traders’ perspective on BTC’s rapid fall to $112.6K: Did anything change?
The Bitcoin “SSR RSI has reached 21,” indicating ‘buy’ territory, as reported by the on-chain data provider CryptoQuant in an X thread on Tuesday.
The last occurrence of the RSI being at this level coincided with BTC bottoming out below $75,000 before a 67% surge to the current all-time highs of $124,500.
A decreasing SSR indicates enhanced stablecoin “buying power.” This is further supported by a consistently growing stablecoin supply, which reflects heightened liquidity and investor confidence.
For instance, Tether USDt (USDT) market capitalization has been steadily increasing, with over 10 billion USDT minted in the past 60 days.
“This is a clear indicator of fresh liquidity entering the market,” noted CryptoQuant, adding:
“Rising stablecoin supply serves as a significant tailwind during bull markets.”
Moreover, long-term Bitcoin holders continue to expand their holdings, with these accumulation addresses now holding a historic 298,000 BTC. This trend reflects their optimism regarding Bitcoin’s potential for further increases.
“These signals may shape Bitcoin’s next major move,” concluded CryptoQuant.
BTC Price Indicates Bottom Signal
As reported by Cointelegraph, various on-chain and technical indicators suggest that last week’s drop to $108,650 could have marked the local bottom for BTC.
The analytics platform Swissblock also stated that the crypto market is resetting based on its aggregated impulse signal, which gauges the exponential price structure across the top 350 assets.
This metric has fallen to 20% from over 100% just a few weeks ago.
“At that precise moment, the Impulse Signal drops to zero, indicating the exhaustion of panic and the entry of new buyers,” the company explained.
Swissblock emphasized that this reset has only occurred three times since early 2024, with each occurrence marking a “cycle bottom” followed by a recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
“We are nearing that setup once more.”
Bitcoin Escapes “Red September” for Third Year
Bitcoin has maintained its trend of favorable average returns in September, a month historically recognized as its worst, often referred to as “Rektember.”
September generally yields the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin, now averaging –3% over a span of 13 years beginning in 2013.
However, Tuesday’s close above $114,000 represents a rare bullish finish to September, a situation that has historically resulted in significant gains in Q4 (see figure below).
Analyst Mikybull Crypto mentioned in an X post on Wednesday:
“Whenever $BTC closes green in September, it is usually followed by a substantial rally in Q4.”
Furthermore, the interval from October to December is recognized as the strongest quarter for Bitcoin price surges, with average gains of 78%.
Reviewing recent Q4s, BTC experienced rallies of about 48% in 2024 and 57% in 2023, alongside an exponential surge of 480% in 2013.
If historical trends continue, BTC prices could experience their most substantial gains of the current bull cycle over the next three months.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading involve risks, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
