Bitcoin continues to face downward pressure following its drop from a record high of over $124,000 earlier this month. As of now, the cryptocurrency is priced at $110,219, marking a weekly decrease of approximately 2% and a more significant fall of over 10% from its peak.
In spite of this correction, analysts are still analyzing on-chain data for clues about the market’s future trajectory. Recently, CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain emphasized the relevance of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Price Bands, a well-established metric for evaluating market cycles.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s current position above essential support bands indicates the uptrend remains viable, while also allowing for both ongoing growth and potential fluctuations.
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MVRV Price Bands Suggest Possible Cycle Peak
The MVRV Price Bands framework has traditionally been used to identify market bottoms and peaks in Bitcoin’s long-term cycles. CryptoOnchain highlighted that the model’s lower band, known as the “floor price,” has consistently signaled market lows in 2018 and 2022, while the upper band pinpointed peak cycles in 2017 and 2021.
At present, Bitcoin’s trading price is comfortably above the model’s floor price of approximately $52,300 and its median support level of around $91,600. This suggests what the analyst described as a “healthy uptrend” with ongoing engagement from long-term holders.
Crucially, the model’s anticipated ceiling price indicates that Bitcoin could soar to as much as $183,000 by August 2025, assuming historical patterns hold true.
The analyst cautioned that while this ceiling level represents a potential target, traders should keep an eye on the mid-price band for indications of diminishing momentum. A significant drop below this level might suggest a trend shift, increasing the risk of deeper corrections even within an overall bullish cycle.
Trends in Bitcoin Cost Basis Reflect Market Dynamics
An additional analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisD sheds further light by exploring the cost basis of Bitcoin holders on Binance. The data indicates that the average deposit address cost basis on Binance has increased from $44,000 earlier this year to $62,000.
This trend signifies that investors are accumulating in higher price ranges, particularly around Bitcoin’s recent highs. New whale investors, characterized as large buyers with substantial holdings, currently boast an average cost basis of $108,000, which is surfacing as a crucial support level.
BorisD commented that this level might lay the groundwork for the next phase of upward movement if demand continues. Simultaneously, wallets associated with miners have shown a slight decline in their average cost basis from $58,000 to $54,000, indicating modest selling pressure from mining operations.
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Meanwhile, long-term holders are well-positioned, with a cost basis near $40,000. Historically, this region has been viewed as a strong accumulation area, offering resilience during wider market corrections. BorisD noted that cost basis levels frequently align with price behavior, acting as both support and resistance during volatile periods.
Featured image generated by DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
