On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) price soared past $94,000, just one day before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, and historical trends indicate that traders should prepare for volatility.
In 2025, BTC’s behavior surrounding FOMC meetings showed that macroeconomic anticipations are often factored into prices, with traders front-running these events, overshadowing the real effects of the policy decisions.
Key takeaways:
Historically, Bitcoin tends to decline following most FOMC events, including periods of rate cuts.
Before FOMC meetings, BTC often sees significant inflows and increased leverage, which depletes spot liquidity and heightens price volatility after the Fed’s announcements.
FOMC outcomes reveal a distinct Bitcoin price trend
Bitcoin’s responses to the seven FOMC decisions in 2025 highlighted a consistent pattern of anticipatory pricing followed by inconsistent, often negative price movements post-event. Here’s how BTC reacted within the seven days after each meeting:
Jan. 29 — No change: -4.58%
March 19 — No change: +5.11%
May 7 — No change: +6.92%
June 18 — No change: +1.48%
July 30 — No change: -3.15%
Sept. 17 — Cut 25 bps: -6.90%
Oct. 29 — Cut 25 bps: -8.00%
The seven-day returns for BTC post each meeting ranged from +6.9% to -8%, with rate-cut meetings showing the weakest performance. This disparity became more apparent when analyzed through market structure rather than just macroeconomic headlines. These results indicated several consistent structural influences behind BTC’s responses:
1. Positioning influenced outcomes:
Before several meetings, especially in July, September, and October, funding rates and open interest increased sharply, showing an over-leveraged market. As highlighted in the chart, the profit realized from new-money (one day to one month) peaked in May, July, and September, which coincided with recent BTC peaks.
Much of the anticipated “dovish upside” was already reflected in the pricing, leaving BTC with limited additional buying power once the FOMC decision was revealed.
2. Rate cuts resulted in maximum drawdowns:
The rate cuts in September and October were succeeded by declines of -6.9% and -8% over the following week. The easing cycle had already been incorporated into the market through pre-FOMC inflows and aggressive long positions, rendering the market more vulnerable upon the official cut announcement.
3. Priced-in movements indicated fragility, not stability:
As policy outcomes became increasingly probable, volatility diminished before the meeting and surged right after as traders adjusted their exposure based on confirmed news, leading to predictable short-term dislocations. Analyst Ardi anticipated a similar result, writing,
“History will be on the side of gravity tomorrow. If we repeat the average drop (~8%), Bitcoin is due to revisit the $88k line of defence before any continuation up.”
In conclusion, the data indicated that FOMC events functioned less as directional catalysts and more as reset points where overextended positions are unwound, even if the interest rate outcome was dovish.
Related: Key Bitcoin price levels to monitor ahead of the last FOMC meeting of 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
