Key insights:
Bitcoin’s MVRV death cross indicates bearish momentum, often leading to significant price corrections.
Nonetheless, the MVRV Z-Score remains well below historical peak levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) may face a prolonged correction in the upcoming weeks, as an overvaluation metric suggests a bearish trend. Crypto analysts believe the market might be undergoing a “macro reversal.”
Bitcoin’s MVRV metric indicates “exhaustion” signs
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Bitcoin, which gauges asset overvaluation, recently formed a “death cross,” signaling reduced momentum, according to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent.
The analyst noted in a QuickTake analysis on Sunday that “MVRV momentum is showing signs of exhaustion with a clear dead cross between the 30DMA and the 365DMA.”
The last occurrence of this bearish crossover was at the 2021 cycle top, leading to a 77% decline from $69,000 to $15,500 during the 2022 bear market.
Related: Bitcoin faces Labor Day crash risk to $105K as sellers respond to OG BTC whale threat
Despite a 13% rise in BTC price to $124,500 from $109,000 between January and August, the MVRV decreased, indicating “weaker capital inflow,” Yonsei_dent added:
“History doesn’t repeat, it rhymes — and the signals from MVRV deserve attention.”
The MVRV death cross “indicates a macro momentum shift from positive to negative,” analyst Ali Martinez mentioned in a Friday post on X.
If past trends hold true, Bitcoin prices could enter a prolonged downtrend, with analysts predicting short-term targets around $105,000, potentially dropping to $60,000 if a bear market arises.
Bitcoin’s rally appears stable; MVRV Z-score insights
Despite the bearish outlook, other on-chain indicators suggest Bitcoin’s $124,500 all-time high may not be the peak. For instance, all 30 CoinGlass bull market peak signals still show no signs of overheating.
Likewise, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains significantly below levels typically associated with market peaks. This divergence hints that the current rally could recover to new all-time highs.
Historically, when market value dramatically surpasses realized value, the score enters the red zone (see chart below), signaling overvaluation and frequently preceding major peaks.
“When it’s high (red zone), people are sitting on significant profits and usually sell. When it’s low (green zone), people are underwater, and smart money buys,” noted popular analyst Stockmoney Lizards in an Aug. 26 post on X.
Historical patterns reveal that every macro peak coincided with an MVRV Z-score between 7 and 9. In 2017, it surged above 9 before the downturn, and in 2021, it climbed above 7 before reversing.
As of 2025, the metric is “around 2,” the analyst added:
“We’re not in the danger zone yet. People aren’t heavily overextended on profits as they were during previous tops. This indicates potential for further growth.”
This suggests that, from an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin is not yet overheated and may continue to rise, potentially toward the bullish megaphone’s $260,000 price target.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision entails risk, and readers should perform their own research.
