Analyzing Bitcoin price forecasts, a new cycle driven by ETFs indicates the potential for another rally exceeding 60% within 180 days. However, diminishing ETF inflows, Federal Reserve risks, and a narrowing safety margin could jeopardize support levels.
Summary
- The prediction for Bitcoin has transitioned from traditional four-year halving cycles to a “cost‑basis returns cycle.” This cycle features three post‑ETF trends where BTC surpasses previous all-time highs, retraces to the ETF cost basis, and then experiences a rally of over 60% within approximately 180 days.
- The latest reset occurs amidst fading inflows into spot ETFs, the Fed indicating only modest interest rate cuts, and analysts cautioning that a potential Bank of Japan hike combined with low liquidity could push BTC toward earlier support levels around $80k or even $75k.
- Current strategies hold over 3% of BTC’s supply through debt-funded purchases, yet a rise in average entry prices and a tighter “margin of safety” suggest a sharp pullback or a drop in market net asset value (mNAV) could trigger sales in a downturn.
The Bitcoin price forecast suggests that the cryptocurrency could significantly rebound in the next 180 days, indicating a shift from its traditional four-year cycles to a new model.
In the last day, BTCUSDT fluctuated between approximately $87.6k and $90.3k, currently hovering just below $90k, which reflects an intraday shift of about 3% peak-to-trough and a net increase of around 1–2%.
The introduction of exchange-traded funds linked to Bitcoin’s spot price has modified the digital asset’s dynamics, establishing what Copper describes as the “cost-basis returns cycle,” as noted in their analysis.
Bitcoin price prediction leaving analysts uncertain
“In 2024/2025, Bitcoin has displayed a consistent pattern: prices reach new all-time highs, undergo significant corrections, and successfully locate support nearly at the ETF investor cost basis before initiating the next upward movement,” according to Copper’s report.
According to the company’s analysis, this pattern has materialized three times since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, with each cycle yielding returns above 60 percent.
Some analysts attribute the sharp corrections to institutional investors rebalancing their portfolios as Bitcoin enters discovery mode, an act that “converts Bitcoin’s volatility into realized returns,” as the firm states.
“Institutions are no longer ‘staking sats’ — in reality, most are indifferent to sats since Bitcoin is now available through equities-style ETF shares. They prioritize risk-adjusted contributions to a portfolio,” the analysis noted.
Financial advisors typically recommend that institutions allocate between 2 and 5 percent to Bitcoin. In the absence of rebalancing, a 2 percent Bitcoin allocation can escalate to 6.2 percent in under 180 days during these cycles, while a 5 percent allocation nears double digits, as reported by Copper.
Fadi Aboualfa, Copper’s research head, informed Cryptonews that Bitcoin is trading close to its ETF investor cost basis, and the pattern suggests a significant upward movement in the upcoming 180 days. Should the cost basis rise as observed in previous cycles, the premium seen at earlier peaks could lead to a substantially higher target range, he indicated.
However, other analysts have pointed out that there are currently few catalysts to propel Bitcoin’s price upwards. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut was largely anticipated in the markets, with indications that there may be only one cut in 2026.
Data from SoSoValue reveals that inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street have dropped significantly in December, failing to balance out the high outflows experienced in November.
BlackRock and Fidelity’s products now command a significant portion of Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization, suggesting that ongoing outflows could impact the digital asset’s valuation, according to market watchers.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, has amassed 660,625 bitcoins, accounting for over 3 percent of the total Bitcoin supply. These acquisitions have primarily been financed through debt. The company has indicated that it may need to sell if its mNAV, reflecting the market value compared to its Bitcoin holdings, falls below 1.
Strategy’s persistent Bitcoin purchases during the bull market have increased the average price paid per coin over the past year, which diminishes its safety margin in the event of a market downturn, according to the company’s disclosures.
Amberdata’s research highlights that “the margin of safety has contracted to levels unseen since early 2024.”
“Early investors tend to be patient, as substantial profits allow them to withstand drawdowns without anxiety. In contrast, late investors become anxious due to investment committee scrutiny and pressure from clients who bought near previous peak prices,” Amberdata analyzed.
Amberdata emphasized that a decline below specific support levels could be significant, altering investor sentiment and triggering negative media coverage.
Depending on the reference date, the year-to-date return for BTC in 2025 stands at approximately +30–35%, which appears robust in absolute terms but is relatively modest when compared to the previous parabolic growth earlier in the cycle. Various analyses indicate that BTC has underperformed certain traditional assets at times in 2025 (e.g., gold and equities), suggesting a maturation in risk-adjusted returns instead of pure speculative surges.
From a trading viewpoint, the past 24 hours resemble classic range action within a more extensive consolidation after a robust year-to-date uptrend: liquidity is reasonable, intraday volatility is manageable yet tradable, and the market structurally balances between maintained support around $80k and the psychologically significant $100k level.
