Key insights:
Bitcoin might revisit the $111,000–$113,000 range, reflecting the breakout pattern observed in Q2.
The URPD metric indicates that 5.5% of BTC supply is concentrated between $110,000–$113,000.
New mid-sized holders have taken on a whale distribution of 715,000 BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged nearly 6% this September, countering its typical bearish trend. Following a strong weekly performance, the asset peaked near a significant supply zone between $115,600 and $117,300. A solid close above $117,300 would indicate a potential advance toward new highs.
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the horizon and anticipated interest rate cuts on Wednesday, Bitcoin is experiencing a slight correction on Monday, falling below $114,500. Analysts suggest this dip could offer a favorable buying opportunity.
Technically, the key retest area lies between $111,000 and $113,000, paralleling the structure seen in Q2. In June, BTC climbed from below $100,000 to $109,000, consolidating just under the $110,000 resistance.
After an initial setback, the market absorbed liquidity around $105,000 before breaking out to new highs in July above $120,000.
A similar trend seems to be forming now. For the current uptrend to hold, Bitcoin must maintain the $111,000–$113,000 range. A drop below this could weaken the bullish case, while stability could indicate further structural breakout confirmation.
The relative strength index (RSI) also supports this outlook, having reclaimed the 50 level and is now testing it as a support level. Historically, such setups have been precursors to renewed buying momentum, as seen in June.
Crypto analyst ShayanBTC noted that miner behavior is supporting this positive outlook,
“The combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation provides a constructive outlook. As long as $112K holds, Bitcoin seems well-positioned to maintain momentum.”
Related: Bitcoin daily dip hits 2% as ‘classic’ BTC price action precedes FOMC
“New” Bitcoin investors are entering, says analyst
The reason the $113,000 zone could act as technical support is due to the URPD (UTXO realized price distribution) metric, which tracks Bitcoin supply distribution by purchase price. Recent data shows that 5.5% of BTC supply has shifted at $110,000–$113,000, marking this range as one of the most actively accumulated in recent weeks.
This indicates a solid base of holders is positioned here, signifying belief that this level represents long-term value.
This accumulation trend is further supported by wallet cohort behaviors. Since July 2024, Shark wallets (holding 100–1,000 BTC) have accumulated nearly 1 million BTC, raising their collective balance to 5.939 million BTC. This consistent rise suggests the entrance of new mid-sized investors.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted that coinciding with this, larger cohorts have notably distributed their holdings. Whale wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) have reduced their holdings by 324,000 BTC since March 2024, while Humpbacks (≥10,000 BTC) have lowered their balance by 391,000 BTC.
In total, about 715,000 BTC have been introduced to the market since last year’s peaks.
Importantly, this supply has been absorbed, primarily by smaller, newer participants, highlighting why the $113,000 level could represent one of the last significant “discounts” before potential upside.
Related: Traders say Bitcoin’s ‘bullish’ weekly close sets path for $120K BTC price
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research prior to making any decisions.
