Bitcoin is nearing a critical turning point in its four-year cycle, with a euphoric “blowoff” surge expected to kick off within days—or possibly having already reached its peak at month 33—according to cycle analyst Bob Loukas. In a video released on September 24, 2025, Loukas expressed that he is “heavily” leaning towards an imminent upward resolution leading to a cycle high in Q4, while identifying risk indicators that could suggest the peak is already established.
Is Bitcoin’s Blowoff Top Imminent or Already Here?
Loukas characterized the current situation as the final phase of Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, stating that the rally from the bear-market low has been “a steadily consistent uptrend characterized by phases of outperformance contributing to most of the gains in this cycle.” He contended that the present multi-month range resembles “a big foundation, a solid block” constructed amid continued selling from long-term holders countered by ongoing institutional demand. “We’ve observed a considerable number of whales selling… and that’s created some downward pressure,” he said, while adding that “robust buying support from institutions… has kept the price stable in this range.”
The cornerstone of his bullish outlook is the lack of a terminal mania phase that has traditionally defined cycle peaks. “What’s most noticeable by its absence here is a blowoff to a high,” Loukas noted. “Throughout every prior cycle leading to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle high, we’ve experienced a three-month period… of euphoric purchasing and substantial price jumps… culminating in a peak.” With the market now approaching month 34 from the previous four-year-cycle low and seasonal patterns turning favorable, he believes the conditions for a late surge are ripe: “We should really be anticipating a blowoff phase that is imminent, just about to start in my view… This is the most opportune moment in the four-year cycle for such a move.”
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Loukas noted the recent August high at month 33, a timing range that “very closely” mirrors past cycles and, according to him, renders a bearish interpretation “plausible.” He emphasized that he isn’t overlooking the relative underperformance compared to equities and the strong rally in gold. From a structural perspective, the move from the bear-market low to the month-33 peak represents “a very robust 700% increase,” and—under a diminishing-returns framework—could potentially be a complete cycle in its own right. “I give it a slim chance that it peaked at month 33… maybe 10% to 20%,” he remarked. Still, he cautioned that trying to dodge risk at this precise moment is unwise “on the brink of a potential upward move.”
If the blowoff occurs, Loukas anticipates it will follow the established pattern of late-cycle weekly advances that rapidly compound over eight to fifteen weeks. He refrained from setting a strict target but explained the potential with previous doubling patterns. “A doubling from recent lows—let’s say $105k—would propel us to $210k… reaching the $200,000 mark by December, although that seems quite ambitious… there’s a clear path to that possibility,” he noted. He stressed that strategy should be guided by market sentiment and overextension rather than arbitrary numerical goals: “We need to be somewhat adaptable… considering how far this market can stretch.”
Risk management was a key point of focus. Loukas highlighted the 10-month moving average—“around the $100,000 level”—as a safety net in the late cycle: “Ending a month below the $100,000 mark is a significant warning sign at this stage.” He also mentioned the previous “large weekly cycle drop at $75,000” as a threshold that “Bitcoin shouldn’t approach,” suggesting that a breach would indicate a bear market is already beginning.
What Lies Ahead
On the upside, he seeks confirmation through new all-time highs that establish a clear invalidation level below. “Ideally, I want to see a move above the $120,000 threshold… if we achieve new all-time highs, that would indeed become my floor,” he stated, elaborating that a subsequent reversal “back below the $105,000 level” following a new peak would “suggest a trend change and a likely peak.”
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Loukas also considered a third scenario: a more prolonged cycle that peaks in early 2026, followed by a shorter-than-normal bear phase. He indicated that this scenario likely wouldn’t feature a classic blowoff and could experience a “controlled rise” toward the $140,000–$160,000 range before consolidating and attempting one final push. Under this scenario, he would “evaluate week by week and month by month, allowing Bitcoin a chance to extend into Q1 of ’26 and beyond,” waiting for unmistakable euphoric conditions before making any distributions.
While he acknowledged that “everyone” is paying attention to Q4 seasonality and four-year-cycle dynamics, Loukas warned against overcomplicating the consensus. “Historically… it tends to unfold in a similar manner,” he said.
Currently, his primary outlook is that the market is “on the brink of a significant commencement of a final leg into the bull market high,” with a peak most probable within the 35–37-month window from the last cycle low. If the market fails to sustain a breakout and instead retracts through his predetermined levels, the analyst stated he would consider that confirmation that the cycle topped at month 33 and will adjust his strategy accordingly.
“The key,” he concluded, “is that we’re not aiming to time hourly, daily, or weekly moves. We are navigating this [on] a four-year-cycle timeline.” The plan moving forward is straightforward, if not simple: “Stay humble… allow the price action to evolve… and aim to capitalize on what I believe will be the last move of this four-year cycle.”
At the time of writing, BTC was valued at $111,740.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
