Bitcoin is increasingly out of reach for average investors, sparking debate on the sustainability of the current bull market beyond the familiar four-year cycle.
The crypto market intelligence firm 10x Research has indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming too pricey for consistent retail buying, a trend that could jeopardize the anticipated extension of the current bull market cycle.
Despite many predictions for a prolonged market cycle, based on past cycles, 10x argues that these conclusions are “highly questionable.”
“Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns,” the firm noted in a Tuesday report, adding:
“While many interpret this as a typical phase of maturity, it raises significant questions about the legitimacy of the so-called Bitcoin cycle theory.”
Given that Bitcoin is just a 16-year-old asset, making “firm statistical conclusions” from such a brief time frame is also considered “highly questionable,” stated 10X Research.
Related: Arthur Hayes predicts $1M Bitcoin as new Japan PM initiates economic stimulus
Bitcoin may reach a cycle peak of $125,000, despite stock-to-flow model predicting $1 million BTC
While various forecasting models, like the widely referenced stock-to-flow model, have suggested a Bitcoin rise to $1 million, 10x Research anticipates a cycle peak of $125,000 by year-end.
The research firm employed a similar methodology to accurately predict the bear market low in October 2022.
Related: Crypto treasuries draining $800B from altcoins, possibly ‘forever’
10x’s price target appears modest compared to some other industry predictions.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, estimated a Bitcoin price of $200,000 by the end of 2025, suggesting that a recent $19 billion liquidation event could create a buying opportunity for investors, as he shared with Cointelegraph at the 2025 European Blockchain Convention in Barcelona.
In a February interview, Kendrick mentioned that Bitcoin could soar to $500,000 before Trump ends his second term in 2028, according to Cointelegraph.
The most successful traders in the industry, labeled as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also increasing their Bitcoin holdings.
On Tuesday, Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) was the 11th most-held token among smart money traders, trailing behind more speculative memecoins like the Pump.fun (PUMP) token and the Pepe (PEPE) memecoin, according to Nansen data.
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