Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a “shock move” that might bring BTC price gains—however, this is not expected until 2026.
Key points:
New analysis suggests the next Bitcoin price bottom will not occur until 2026.
Decreasing trading volume minimizes chances for a quick recovery in the market.
Cooling sell-side pressure could enable a price increase to $99,000.
BTC price bottom: Not until 2026?
In a recent YouTube analysis on Thursday, crypto analyst Jason Pizzino anticipated that BTC/USD might face another year of decreasing lows.
Bitcoin may not find its long-term bottom until as late as October 2026.
Pizzino summarized the current market dynamics, noting that community sentiment suggests BTC/USD may create a bounce zone at some point within the next 11 months.
“As I mentioned, we have some time,” he stated.
“It’s still too early to determine if this will lead to a low that pushes to a new all-time high or one that only sets a significant lower high based on the 18-year cycle.”
Pizzino highlighted the behavior of risk assets pertinent to the 18-year cycle theory linked with real estate markets.
He observed Bitcoin trading volume decreasing similarly to late 2022 and early 2023, which served as a launchpad for the current bull market.
“That’s when these shock moves occur, as most people are not paying attention,” he explained.
With the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) presenting strong overhead resistance and a lack of trader risk appetite evident in a balanced long/short ratio, Pizzino saw little potential for a major trend shift in the near term.
Sellers hold the key to $99,000 rebound
Regarding investor behavior, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests a potential consolidation phase may precede a new market surge.
Related: Bitcoin retail inflows to Binance ‘collapse’ to 400 BTC record low in 2025
In its latest weekly report sent to Cointelegraph on Tuesday, titled “The Calm Before The Vol,” researchers noted the decline in exchange inflows from significant entities.
“The percentage of total deposits from larger players has dropped from a 24-hour average of 47% in mid-November to 21% today,” they reported.
“Concurrently, the average deposit has decreased by 36% from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC now. Selling pressure lessens when major players reduce their crypto exchange transfers.”
CryptoQuant anticipates that continuous drops in selling pressure may push BTC/USD back to $99,000.
“This level represents the lower boundary of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, serving as price resistance in bear markets. Following this level, key resistance points are $102K (one-year moving average) and $112K (the Trader On-chain Realized price),” they added.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
