The current trajectory of Bitcoin’s price leading into a bear market is becoming one of the most critical inquiries within the cryptocurrency sector. At present, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $87,700 to $88,000, marking a 30% decline from its peak in October 2025.
While price movements often spark discussions, on-chain metrics are starting to provide clearer insights. In particular, insights from CryptoQuant indicate that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is evolving in a way that aligns more closely with the characteristics of early bear market phases.
BCMI Falls Below Equilibrium
A significant bear market indicator comes from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, a composite metric that integrates price trends with on-chain momentum. As reported by Woo Minkyu, a recognized analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI dropped to the 0.5 level in October. Initially, this was viewed as a cooling period rather than an outright cycle peak. The prevailing view was that Bitcoin was consolidating after a prolonged upward trend.
Additional Insights
However, this perspective has weakened as market conditions have deteriorated. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has dropped significantly since late October, coinciding with a decline in the BCMI. This combined decline indicates that the market is not only resetting temporally but also in terms of valuation and participation.
As displayed in the chart below, the BCMI has now dipped below its equilibrium range, a development typically associated with transitions into bearish phases, where price rallies tend to be limited, increasing downside risk.
Examining previous Bitcoin cycles provides further context for the current situation. In both 2019 and 2023, significant cycle bottoms were identified only after the BCMI dropped into the 0.25 to 0.35 region. These levels were indicative of substantial sentiment compression, removed positions, and a structural market reset.
With current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is now under 0.4. This value is below equilibrium but still considerably above a low zone. This raises the possibility that the market could be transitioning into a bear phase instead of merely undergoing a pullback.
The analyst suggests that a more sustainable bottom may only materialize if historical patterns repeat, and the BCMI revisits levels seen in 2019-2023.
Weak Sentiment Reinforces Bear Market Theories
Market sentiment further supports the notion that Bitcoin is delving deeper into a bearish trend. Optimism has become quite rare in recent weeks, with traders showing limited confidence that Bitcoin’s price has established a steady foundation. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently recording a value of 28, firmly placing sentiment in the Fear zone.
Additional Insights
This bleak sentiment backdrop has been echoed in industry discussions. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently observed that numerous investors wish they had acquired Bitcoin earlier, when prices were already at their all-time highs. In reality, those early accumulations occurred during phases similar to the current one, dominated by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
