A widespread sentiment has emerged in the crypto community recently: “The four-year crypto market cycle is over.” Analysts from the Bull Theory contend that while the four-year cycle might be fading, the Bitcoin bull run is simply postponed and could extend until 2027.
Reasons Behind the Potential End of the Four-Year Cycle
In a recent social media post on platform X, formerly known as Twitter, analysts from Bull Theory pointed out that the traditional notion of Bitcoin following a predictable four-year cycle is diminishing.
They underscored that major price fluctuations over the past decade were not exclusively linked to Halving events; instead, they were affected by changes in global liquidity.
The analysts drew attention to the current state of stablecoin liquidity, which remains robust despite recent declines, suggesting that larger investors are still active in the market, ready to invest when favorable macroeconomic conditions arise.
Further Reading
In the United States, Treasury policies are becoming crucial catalysts. Although recent buybacks are noteworthy, the analysts argue that the larger picture revolves around the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, currently hovering around $940 billion—almost $90 billion higher than its typical range.
This excess capital is expected to flow back into the financial system, improving financing conditions and increasing liquidity that usually favors risk assets.
Internationally, trends look even more optimistic. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package valued at around $135 billion and initiatives aimed at simplifying cryptocurrency regulations.
Canada is also poised to loosen its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially ceased its quantitative tightening (QT) measures, historically a precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.
Political and Monetary Factors Align for a Bullish Outlook
The analysts indicated that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to react more swiftly than traditional stocks or broader markets.
Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—initially introduced in 2020 to provide banks with more flexibility in enhancing their balance sheets—could reemerge, leading to increased credit creation and improved market liquidity.
There is also a political element to consider. President Trump has discussed possible tax reforms, including the elimination of income tax and distributing $2,000 in tariff dividends.
Moreover, the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair who is supportive of liquidity assistance and favorable toward cryptocurrency could further facilitate conditions for economic growth.
Prolonged Bitcoin Uptrend Anticipated
Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) exceeds 55, it has typically been followed by periods of altcoin activity. The likelihood of this happening in 2026 appears promising, according to the Bull Theory.
Further Reading
The combination of increasing stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s influx of cash into markets, global quantitative easing measures, the end of QT in the US, potential easing of bank lending policies, and market-friendly policy shifts set for 2026, along with major players entering the crypto market, suggests a distinct scenario diverging from the traditional four-year halving model.
The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands simultaneously across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to act contrary to that trend.
Consequently, instead of experiencing a sharp surge followed by an extended bear market, the current landscape indicates a more prolonged and widespread uptrend potentially extending through 2026 and into 2027.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart sourced from TradingView.com
