Has The Bitcoin Price Bull Market Topped?

The bitcoin price recently retraced nearly $10,000 after setting a new all-time high of $124,000 on August 14. The sharp drop to the $114,000-115,000 range has reignited debate about whether the bull market has peaked. But in percentage terms, the move is just a 7.8% retracement — a normal fluctuation for bitcoin. By analyzing on-chain data, ETF flows, and macro conditions, we can assess whether this is the end of the cycle or just a healthy reset before further gains.

Bitcoin Price Action and Technicals

• The bitcoin price remains well above major support zones.
• The pullback has found stability near the 50-day moving average, while the 100-day MA (~$110,000) offers additional confluence with the May peak.
• Historically, retracements of 30%+ have been common in bull markets, meaning this 7.8% decline is relatively minor.

Bitcoin Price and Long-Term Holder Confidence

• Data reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) are increasing their bitcoin supply, signaling unwillingness to sell at current price levels.
• This suggests two things:
  1. Veteran holders expect a higher bitcoin price in the future.
  2. New demand is temporarily slowing, creating short-term stagnation.

Bitcoin Price and ETF Inflows

• Institutional demand through ETFs has cooled, with net inflows slowing after peaking alongside the bitcoin price.
• When averaged over 28 days, flows tend to align with market highs, and the recent slowdown points to a deceleration of fresh capital inflows rather than a full reversal.
• Sustained ETF demand will be critical for driving the next phase of the bitcoin price rally.

Bitcoin Price and Derivatives Market Signals

• Funding rates have turned negative in recent sessions, meaning most traders are betting against the bitcoin price.
• Historically, negative funding rates often coincide with local bottoms that precede sharp rebounds.
• This supports the view that the bitcoin price bull market is not over.

Bitcoin Price and Global Liquidity Trends

• Global M2 money supply has stagnated, slowing the flow of fiat liquidity into speculative assets like bitcoin.
• The bitcoin price remains correlated to U.S. equities, particularly the S&P 500, which has also retraced after new highs.
• If the Federal Reserve pivots toward rate cuts, this could serve as a catalyst for both equities and the bitcoin price to resume their uptrend.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Outlook: Consolidation Before Higher Levels

• Short-term: A further dip to $110,000 is possible, but this level represents strong confluence of support.
• Medium-term: Extended sideways consolidation could continue into 2026 if cycles are lengthening.
• Long-term: No on-chain or macro indicators confirm a cycle top; rather, the evidence points to more upside potential for the bitcoin price once new demand enters.

Conclusion

While the recent $10,000 drop felt severe, it amounts to less than an 8% move in the bitcoin price — a routine correction in the context of previous bull cycles. Long-term holders are holding firm, ETF flows remain positive though slowing, and derivatives data suggests shorts could be caught offside. The biggest missing factor is renewed liquidity and capital inflows.

The base case remains clear: the bitcoin price bull market has not topped. Instead, this retracement is a pause, not an ending, and significant upside potential remains for the rest of the cycle.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.