Main Highlights:
The short-term outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with a potential drop to $50,000 if the $74,508 support level is broken.
A bullish trend may emerge above $100,000, potentially leading to a rally towards $126,199.
Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 around $93,000, before dropping to $74,500 in April and later climbing to $126,199 in October, ending the year at approximately $87,000 on December 31.
Analysts have mixed opinions on BTC’s future; some believe it has reached its peak and expect a bear market, while others foresee limited downside with a possible rally to new all-time highs in 2026.
Another factor to monitor is whether BTC will adhere to its four-year cycle. Some experts argue that favorable regulations, the introduction of BTC exchange-traded funds, and institutional interest might render this cycle irrelevant.
Although predicting the future is challenging, charts can offer insights into possible scenarios. Traders should closely monitor the identified support and resistance levels mentioned in this article to inform their trading strategies. Let’s take a look at the monthly and weekly charts for a long-term perspective on BTC.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin has been creating a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the monthly charts, indicating a bullish trend.
In previous corrections, Bitcoin consistently found support at the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA) ($88,049), making it a significant level to monitor.
A close below the 20-month EMA and the April low of $74,508 would break the established sequence of higher lows, signaling dwindling demand as buyers await lower entry points. This could halt the upward trend, dragging the price down toward $50,000.
Conversely, if the price rebounds from the 20-week EMA and surpasses the critical $100,000 threshold, the bullish trend may continue. Bulls would then aim to push the price to the previous all-time high of $126,199, where strong resistance from bears is anticipated. If buyers succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could initiate a further uptrend reaching $141,188 and then $178,621.
Reviewing the weekly charts, the immediate outlook appears bearish. The moving averages are approaching a bearish crossover for the first time since January 2022, which previously resulted in an extended downtrend.
The price may decline to the $74,508 level, where buyers are expected to defend strongly. However, negative sentiment can turn rallies into selling opportunities. In April 2022, bears halted a rally at the moving averages, resuming the downtrend.
If past patterns repeat, the price could decline from the moving averages down to the $74,508 level. Frequent retests of a support level typically weaken it. A decisive break and close below $74,508 could result in a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, paving the way for a plunge to $50,000. Such a scenario could delay the uptrend resumption, as markets often consolidate after sharp declines, similar to the period from June 2022 to February 2023.
This negative outlook will be nullified if the price rises and breaks above the moving averages, indicating that the $74,508 level is acting as support. In that case, the pair may race towards the $126,199 resistance.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
