Bitcoin Price Review Suggests Potential Market Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at approximately $108,700, remaining stable for the day yet down over 6% in the past month and about 5% in the last week. The subdued Bitcoin price movement indicates broader market caution, but underlying on-chain signals reveal a strengthening rebound narrative.

Indicators such as short-term holder capitulation, realized price clusters, and technical thresholds collectively suggest a market poised for its next significant shift.

Short-Term Holder SOPR Indicates Weak Hands Exiting

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) assesses whether coins moved on-chain were sold at a profit or loss. For short-term holders—who typically react swiftly—this metric offers a near-real-time sentiment gauge.

With Bitcoin’s price declining in recent weeks, the short-term SOPR has dipped to 0.982 (as of August 29), marking its lowest point in months. This indicates that a significant portion of short-term holders are selling at a loss, often seen as capitulation by weak hands.

This historical pattern usually clears out short-term speculators, paving the way for stronger hands to enter the market.

A similar occurrence was noted on April 17, when SOPR reached 0.94, a one-year low. At that time, Bitcoin bottomed at $84,800 before rebounding 31.6% to $111,600 once SOPR rose back above 1.

This current situation shows a comparable setup, implying that this recent capitulation may indicate a market bottom.

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As of now, the short-term holder SOPR metric has edged up to 0.99 but remains close to multi-week lows.

URPD Highlights Robust Support and Resistance Clusters

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) details where the current BTC supply last changed hands, offering insight into levels of support and resistance. Each cluster signifies price points where significant amounts of Bitcoin were purchased, forming natural barriers.

On the lower end, $107,000 supports a significant cluster of 286,255 BTC (1.44%), while $108,200 ($108,253.26 on the chart) contains 447,544 BTC (2.25%). These concentrations clarify why Bitcoin’s price has stabilized around the $108,000 mark, despite ongoing selling pressure.

Notably, the recent SOPR low coincided with Bitcoin trading near $108,300—almost identical to the $108,200 URPD cluster—reinforcing this area as a potential market bottom zone.

Conversely, resistance builds swiftly above. $113,200 (near the crucial $113,500 threshold) holds 210,708 BTC (1.06%), while $114,400 contains 220,562 BTC (1.11%). The most significant hurdle is at $116,900, where 2.88% of the supply was last transacted—the heaviest barrier in the area. For bullish momentum, reclaiming this zone is vital for any sustainable recovery.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s swing low at $107,300 remains the critical invalidation point (close to the lowest key URPD anchor of $107,000). A close below this would affirm a bearish continuation and challenge the market bottom scenario.

On the rebound front, surpassing $109,700 would signify initial strength. Following that, $112,300 (Fib 0.5) and $113,500 (Fib 0.618) mark the breakout areas that bulls must flip.

Indicators suggest that $113,500 is a consistently rejected zone for current Bitcoin prices and is the most critical level to alter the narrative.

Currently, the narrative is clear. Weak hands are exiting (SOPR), strong hands are defending key clusters (URPD), and the price hovers near support. If Bitcoin’s price exceeds $117,400, it could validate renewed strength.

However, failing to maintain $107,300 would shift the narrative back toward the bears.