Main points:
ASTER maintains strong support around $1.60–$1.80, indicating a possible 35% rebound next month.
With a $325 million token unlock approaching in October, ASTER’s $1 billion daily trading volume suggests the market can manage the added supply.
Aster (ASTER) has dropped over 25% following a peak of approximately $2.43, trading at $1.80 as of Tuesday. Is a recovery for this Binance-associated DEX token anticipated in October?
Support levels point to a 35% price rebound for ASTER
The recent drop in ASTER has brought it into a “hot support” range at $1.60–$1.80, which, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes, has historically led to rebounds of 15%–35%.
He expects a similar bounce soon, suggesting that “a break above $2” could propel ASTER to a new record high beyond $2.43.
Related: Aster can surpass HYPE by market cap and surge another 480%: Analyst
This optimistic scenario is supported by ASTER’s current falling wedge pattern, a technical formation often linked to bullish trend reversals.
The breakout indicates a projected move towards $2.22–$2.45 in October if validated, reflecting a potential rally exceeding 35%.
Trader BitcoinHabebe predicts that Aster could reach $3 in October if it makes a strong rebound from the $1.60-$1.80 range, labeling this zone as ideal for accumulation.
What might affect this positive Aster outlook?
The bullish scenario could shift if ASTER dips below $1.60–$1.80, warns Van de Poppe, potentially leading to a decline towards $1.25, close to the support level established on Sept. 21–22.
This bearish perspective is derived from a descending triangle pattern, which traders often interpret as a cautionary indicator.
In this configuration, the price trend shows lower highs, suggesting weakening buying interest, while a flat support line remains intact. A breach of that support typically indicates seller dominance, often resulting in a more pronounced decline.
In ASTER’s instance, the descending triangle’s projected move suggests a drop towards $1.26, aligning with Van de Poppe’s bearish target for October.
Upcoming ASTER token unlock in October
Aside from technical analysis, Aster is set for a significant token unlock on Oct. 17, when 183.13 million ASTER—valued at around $325 million or 11% of the market cap—will be released into circulation, based on data from DropStab.com.
ASTER appears to be in a more favorable position than many tokens to manage the upcoming unlock.
The project boasts nearly $1 billion in daily trading volume and more than $2.26 billion in total value locked (TVL), indicating robust liquidity within its ecosystem.
This level of activity implies that the market can likely accommodate the additional supply and may serve as a launchpad for ASTER’s rise to a new all-time high if traders perceive the unlock as a chance to “buy the dip.”
However, opinions among analysts vary. Trader Gordon, who claims to have achieved $1.40 million in profits from shorting ASTER, argues that buyers may be cautious at these price points.
He highlights the tokenomics of the project, mentioning that approximately $700 million worth of ASTER is scheduled to unlock by year-end, cautioning that the token might “continue to decline” as new supply enters the market.
Aster is actively exploring a vesting schedule for recipients of airdrops to mitigate such potential risks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
