Key points:
If the $110,000 support fails, Bitcoin risks a correction toward $96,500–$100,000.
Onchain and technical analyses indicate a healthy mid-cycle adjustment rather than a complete trend reversal.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) bounce back following a significant weekend drop showed signs of weakening on Tuesday.
The leading cryptocurrency declined 4.65% to about $110,000, reflecting a decline in global equities after China imposed restrictions on five U.S. companies connected to South Korea’s largest shipbuilder, warning of potential retaliation.
Throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s $110,000 level has frequently alternated between resistance and support. Previous rejections led to declines of 19–30%, while rebounds after July from this level spurred gains of 12–15%.
Let’s explore how low BTC might fall if the $110,000 support fails.
Bitcoin’s broadening wedge indicates $100,000
Multiple analyses suggest the likelihood of Bitcoin’s price dropping to $100,000 increases if the $110,000 support level does not hold.
This includes a “giant bullish channel” highlighted by chartist BitBull, showing BTC prices fluctuating within a broadening wedge.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was in the midst of a correction after testing the upper trendline of the wedge as resistance. Historically, such corrections have tended to conclude near the lower trendline, aligning with the $100,000-$103,000 range.
This area also coincides with Bitcoin’s 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA, represented by the red wave) and the 1.618 Fibonacci retracement line, adding technical significance as a potential target zone.
BTC metric indicates a $96,500 target (or lower)
Bitcoin is currently trading below its +0.5 standard deviation band (+0.5σ band; orange) around $119,000, according to Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands.
The MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands is an onchain model that measures how much the current market price deviates from Bitcoin’s “fair value,” based on what most holders paid for their coins (the realized price).
Historically, when BTC fails to maintain the +0.5σ band as support, it tends to revert to the mean band (yellow), currently around $96,500.
A similar “mean reversion” phase was observed during the December 2024–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell from the +0.5σ level (~$66,980) to the mean band (~$53,900) before sharply rebounding.
Related: 3 reasons why a Bitcoin rally to $125K could be delayed
This fractal indicates the present arrangement might merely be another cooling-off period within a larger bull market, serving to eliminate excess leverage and inflated valuations before the next upward movement.
A drop below the mean reversion target could, however, trigger a bear market, with the next downside target around $74,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
