Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s overall upward trend and on-chain metrics indicate that the market is still in an expansion phase.
Active dip-buying by “sharks” and crucial trendline support suggest another potential BTC rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to bounce back following a day when traders experienced the most significant single-day liquidation ever, with over $5.39 billion in leveraged positions lost in 24 hours—twice the amount seen during the “COVID-19 crash” in 2020.
As of Saturday, BTC’s price had risen by 8.50% after hitting a local low of around $103,000. At the time of writing, it remains down 11% from its record high of $126,300 reached earlier in the week.
Will Bitcoin’s recovery extend further? These three charts suggest favorable technical conditions for a potential rally in the upcoming days or weeks.
Bitcoin uptrend remains intact despite $5.39 billion wipeout
While Bitcoin’s recent correction may appear severe on lower timeframes, a broader perspective shows that it’s relatively mild compared to previous pullbacks.
On the weekly chart, BTC has dipped less than 10% so far, significantly less than the 14–15% declines experienced in March 2025 and July 2024, both of which were followed by substantial recoveries.
Bitcoin’s price continues to trade within its ascending channel, a bullish pattern that has driven its uptrend since mid-2023.
Buyers have consistently entered the market whenever BTC has approached the lower boundary of this channel, igniting new rallies toward the upper range.
The crucial level to monitor now is the 20-week moving average (20-week MA) near $111,000, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe.
Staying above the 20-week MA support could indicate a final capitulation phase similar to the COVID-19 dip and the FTX low.
This could pave the way for the next significant BTC uptrend, targeting $140,000-150,000 by year-end.
BTC sharks capitalize on the dip
While many smaller traders were liquidated during the $5.39 billion event on Friday, medium-sized holders—referred to as “sharks”—took advantage of the dip with aggressive buying.
The daily Shark Net Position Change, which tracks wallets containing between 100 and 1,000 BTC, has surged to 190,296, its highest level since September 2012, according to Glassnode data.
Moreover, the Bitcoin supply held by this group has climbed significantly in 2025, reaching an all-time high on Friday despite the price drop, indicating less panic among seasoned investors.
Related: Bitcoin slump may rebound up to 21% in 7 days if historical trends repeat: Economist
The surge in purchases by these larger entities could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next significant recovery if the trend continues.
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands remain “squeezing”
The recent correction in Bitcoin may represent a mid-cycle cooldown rather than signaling the onset of a prolonged bear market, according to chartist The Great Mattsby.
Every past Bitcoin bull market concluded only after its monthly Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, fully expanded, as illustrated in the chart below.
These bands widen when market volatility rises and contract as price movements decrease.
In previous bull cycles, including 2013, 2018, and 2021, Bitcoin peaked precisely when those monthly bands had expanded significantly, signaling extreme volatility.
At present, however, these bands are still contracting, or “squeezing,” which may precede further price increases if historical patterns repeat.
The Great Mattsby stated:
Using historical patterns as our benchmark, bear markets do not commence when the monthly Bollinger Bands are still squeezing. They begin after the bands have expanded.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
