Main Points:
Solana dipped to $192 on Thursday, wiping out its entire surge to $253 within a week.
A spot ETF decision on Oct. 10 could initiate stronger institutional investment.
SOL’s RSI pattern suggests a potential short-term low despite the altcoin’s broader decline.
Solana (SOL) dropped below the $200 threshold on Thursday, reversing its recent rise to an eight-month high of $253. The 19% decline over the week has unsettled market dynamics and raised concerns about short-term resilience.
However, an upcoming catalyst may shift the situation. Grayscale’s spot SOL exchange-traded fund (ETF) is set for its first approval deadline on Oct. 10, a decision that could influence whether institutional capital flows begin to elevate SOL akin to BTC and ETH in the past year.
While the REX Osprey Staking SOL ETF, launched in July, provides spot exposure, its structure is less significant compared to a pure spot product. A Grayscale spot ETF would facilitate more direct institutional engagement, potentially unleashing greater liquidity and wider adoption.
This decision is merely the first in a sequence of rulings. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is scheduled to review five additional applications, with a final deadline set for Oct. 16, 2025, featuring proposals from Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary. This slate illustrates the rising institutional interest in integrating SOL into mainstream investment vehicles.
Advocates suggest this timing could be crucial. Asset managers at Pantera Capital recently named SOL as “next in line for its institutional moment,” noting its under-allocation relative to BTC and ETH. Institutions hold roughly 16% of Bitcoin and 7% of Ether, while less than 1% of SOL’s supply is owned by institutions. Pantera Capital asserted that a spot ETF could hasten adoption, especially as firms like Stripe and PayPal enhance their integrations with Solana.
Nevertheless, not all signals indicate an impending breakout. The prediction market platform Polymarket currently assigns a mere 41% likelihood of SOL achieving a new all-time high in 2025. This suggests ongoing caution even as ETF speculation intensifies.
Related: Australian fitness company drops 21% on Solana treasury speculation
Price indicator with an 80% accuracy rate suggests SOL low
SOL’s price movements have shown significant volatility over the last three weeks. The token climbed to $253 from $200 in just 12 days, but a rapid downturn showed diminishing short-term momentum, with sellers gaining ground faster than buyers had made it.
However, on larger timeframes, the overall trend remains positive. SOL continues to create a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a bullish daily structure. The current correction is occurring within the major demand zone or order block between $200 and $185, which coincides with the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement range, often monitored for technical rebounds. Sustaining this zone would reinforce the uptrend and potentially reset momentum.
If the $185 level is breached, focus will shift to the next order block between $170 and $156. While such a move would not instantly turn the daily chart bearish, it would considerably weaken trend strength and likely provoke deeper selling pressures.
On the intraday front, the four-hour chart indicates signs of seller fatigue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has once more dipped below 30, a threshold that historically has indicated bottoms or higher lows for SOL.
Since April 2025, this configuration has appeared five times, and on four of those occasions, SOL experienced rapid recoveries. If this pattern continues, short-term relief may ensue as the higher timeframe correction unfolds.
Related: Solana open interest reaches record 72M SOL, yet why is price declining?
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading actions involve risk, and readers should perform their own research before making decisions.
