Bitcoin (BTC) commenced 2026 at $87,500 as the market prepared for the initial Wall Street trading session of the year.
Key highlights:
Bitcoin remains at $87,500 as the TradFi trading resumes across global markets.
RSI and Bollinger Band indicators suggest significant BTC price volatility is imminent.
Market participants bid farewell to the four-year price cycle theory.
Traders prepare for BTC price volatility akin to 2023
Data from TradingView showed a steady beginning to the new yearly candle for Bitcoin, following a challenging Q4 for bullish traders.
As TradFi markets reopen, traders are feeling a mix of anxiety and optimism about a potential rebound in the broader crypto market.
“New year, fresh start. We have a confirmed 3-day bull divergence, right at key support,” trader Jelle noted in his latest analysis on X.
Jelle highlighted a bullish divergence appearing on the relative strength index (RSI) on three-day timelines.
“$BTC looks favorable for upward movement this quarter,” he stated.
Analytics account Quantdata21 predicted BTC price volatility due to low weekly RSI and an unprecedented narrowing of the Bollinger Bands volatility index.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the Bollinger BandWidth derivative had been setting records throughout Q4, suggesting a significant upward move was expected.
“There has been only one instance where the daily Bollinger Band width has tightened this significantly with the weekly RSI below 40,” Quantdata21 tweeted on Wednesday.
“That was January 2023, and we all know what transpired for Bitcoin after that.”
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle faces a “new era”
Despite this, Bitcoin’s price performance in 2025 concluded on a low note as BTC/USD marked its first “red” 12-month candle in a post-halving year.
Related: Bitfinex whales go long BTC for 2026: 5 essential insights in Bitcoin this week
This spurred further debate over the relevance of the four-year BTC price cycles.
$BTC has just finished its post-halving year in red for the first time ever.
Cycles were never a natural law.
They represented a liquidity pattern.
Different macro conditions, different participants, different constraints.
What didn’t change was Bitcoin.
What changed was the assumption that timing remains constant… pic.twitter.com/QCHF2J32tc
— Cipher X (@Cipher2X) January 1, 2026
“RIP Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle,” remarked Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of Bitcoin security firm Bnk To The Future, informing his X followers on that day.
Dixon predicted that 2026 would usher in a “new era” for Bitcoin following the breakdown of the four-year cycle.
Nonetheless, as Cointelegraph reported, numerous forecasts anticipate new all-time highs within the upcoming year. A target of $150,000 has gained traction, particularly from Strategy CEO Michael Saylor and others.
In the short run, crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe initiated the countdown to $90,000.
“Given that more investment avenues are being opened for $BTC, I believe we will test $90K in the coming week and begin to rise,” he concluded.
This article is not a source of investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information presented in this article. This piece may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be responsible for any losses incurred from reliance on this information.
This article is not a source of investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should perform their own research before making any choices. While we aim to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information presented in this article. This piece may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be responsible for any losses incurred from reliance on this information.
