Reasons for Rigs Going Dark
Miners are navigating one of the most challenging margin environments the industry has encountered in years.
A recent analysis indicates that hash revenue for major public miners has dropped from approximately $55 per petahash (PH) per day in Q3 to around $35 per PH/day today. Their median all-in cost is close to $44 per PH/day. Essentially, a significant portion of the sector is currently mining at a loss.
Simultaneously, the network hashrate is lingering around 1.0-1.1 zettahash (ZH) per second, indicating that competition for each block is nearing record levels.
The crux of the issue is return on investment (ROI): Even new machines are now showcasing payback periods surpassing 1,000 days, with the next halving approximately 850 days away. If conditions remain unchanged, a considerable number of miners acquiring hardware today may have difficulties recouping their investments before the next halving unless market dynamics improve.
This guide outlines how mining economics will function in 2025, how to assess whether your machines are underperforming, and what realistic options you have if they are.
Mining Economics in 2025
Post-halving, all miners are competing for a smaller share.
The block subsidy dropped from 6.25 Bitcoin (BTC) to 3.125 BTC in the 2024 halving, halving the main contributor to miner revenue instantly.
With about 144 blocks per day, this translates to approximately 450 BTC in new issuance each day, plus transaction fees.
At the same time, the network’s hashrate has surged into the zettahash range, averaging around 1.0+ ZH/s over the past week.
The outcome is an unprecedented low in hash price, which reflects the USD revenue per PH/day of hashing power. Various crypto publications and trackers indicate recent levels around $35-$38 per PH/day or roughly $0.03-$0.04 per terahash (TH).
Miners must navigate the following:
Capital expenditure (capex): Application-specific integrated circuit machines (ASICs), transformers, racks, networking, and land.
Operating expenditure (opex): Power price per kWh, hosting margin, cooling costs, maintenance, debt service, and staffing.
To sustain operations, miners must clear two hurdles:
Cash flow test: Is daily revenue exceeding daily operational costs at the current hash price and power rate?
Payback test: Can the rig realistically earn back its purchase cost before the next halving or major hardware obsolescence?
These two metrics are essential benchmarks for most mining setups.
Did you know? In mining, a kilowatt hour (kWh) is the unit reflected in your electricity bill. A miner using four kW consumes four kWh every hour, making kWh the ultimate metric for your daily and monthly operating costs.
Challenges Faced by New-Gen Rigs
If you’re operating up-to-date hardware, this segment becomes troubling.
Current top models, including Bitmain’s Antminer S21 and the Whatsminer M60 series, achieve around 17-22 joules per terahash (J/TH). This marks a substantial improvement over older generations and is now widely regarded as the minimum standard for serious deployments.
On paper, such efficiency should yield favorable margins. However, in reality:
With a hash price of $35-$38 per PH/day, even the most energy-efficient rigs barely cover electricity costs for miners paying mid-range industrial rates.
Analysts predict around $40 per PH/day as a typical break-even point for many operations. Falling below this threshold incurs additional losses.
TheMinerMag and other sources indicate that ASIC payback periods now exceed 1,000 days at current hardware prices and revenue, surpassing the time remaining until the next halving.
Some profitability resources advise that, given these power rates, purchasing spot BTC can be simpler than mining, though this decision depends on individual circumstances.
This is why rigs are going dark. In many cases, any additional block mined exacerbates losses.
Did you know? A miner’s joules per terahash (J/TH) rating shows the energy consumed to perform hashing work. A lower J/TH indicates the machine accomplishes the same terahash with less electricity, making it the most significant indicator of ASIC efficiency.
Assessing If Your Machines Are Underperforming
Here’s a straightforward framework you can execute in 15 minutes.
Gather Your Data:
ASIC model and hashrate
Efficiency (J/TH) as per the manufacturer’s specifications
All-in power price per kWh (including energy, demand fees, and hosting markup)
Pool fee and any site-level charges.
Estimate Daily Revenue:
Multiply your total hashrate in PH or TH by a current hash price rate, such as $35-$38 per PH/day.
For TH units, keep in mind that $35 per PH/day equals $0.035 per TH/day.
Calculate Daily Power Cost:
Convert efficiency to power consumption: (J/TH x hashrate in TH) ÷ 1,000 = kW
Multiply kW x 24 x kWh price
Include a 5%-10% buffer for cooling, networking, and transformer losses.
Run the Cash-Flow Test:
If your revenue is lower than your power costs, you’re losing money for each day you’re operational.
Stress-test your setup by evaluating whether your figures still hold if the hash price decreases by 10% and difficulty increases by 10%.
If this scenario leads to a deficit, you may be depending on an imminent BTC price surge.
Run the Payback Test:
Divide your ASIC purchase price by net daily profit, calculated as revenue minus operating costs.
If the payback period exceeds the duration until the next halving, expected in about 2.3 years, regard any new hardware purchase as speculative rather than a stable business investment.
If both tests yield negative results, your setup is likely more akin to a costly form of dollar-cost averaging than a viable mining operation.
Options When Mining Becomes Uneconomical
If the numbers aren’t favorable, you still have several strategies to consider.
Throttle or Selectively Curtail
Underclock your machines, cease operations for the least efficient units, or run solely during off-peak tariff hours. In certain markets, grid operators even compensate large sites for curtailing during peak stress times.
Pursue Cheaper Energy Sources
For hosted miners, this could involve renegotiating contracts or relocating to facilities with more affordable blended power rates. At an industrial level, the trend is leaning toward leveraging behind-the-meter renewables, flared gas, and other stranded energy sources to undercut grid rates.
Repurpose the Facility
Some operators are experimenting with AI and high-performance computing workloads, renting spare capacity to clients needing inference or rendering services. While this is not a seamless transition due to changes in cooling, networking, and customer relationships, it can transform a stranded facility into a profitable data center.
Consolidate or Exit
For certain operators, selling off rigs or consolidating operations can be more pragmatic than persisting through another challenging phase.
Implications of Shutdowns for Future Miners and Bitcoin
Miner struggles do not inherently pose a risk to the protocol.
Historically, a sufficient number of operators shutting down prompts a decrease in difficulty, which improves margins for those who remain operational. However, the current cycle is more complex as large public miners with favorable power contracts and hedging strategies can endure longer, hampering the necessary market correction.
For anyone contemplating mining in 2025, key requirements are evident:
Access to truly low-cost power, approximately $0.06 per kWh all-inclusive or less
Current-generation efficiency, as hardware below 20-J/TH is no longer a viable option
Discipline in conducting regular break-even assessments and a readiness to shut down when the figures no longer support operations.
For Bitcoin itself, cycles of miner shutdowns have looked more like a reset, where capital and energy shift from inefficient players to more streamlined operators.
The tough lesson for smaller participants is clear: For many smaller miners, economics often favor purchasing BTC over mining, though this varies based on power costs and hardware efficiency.
