Crypto experts are discussing the potential for a crypto rally in October, just 10 days away, following a downturn in the markets on Monday.
Historically, October has emerged as one of the most consistently positive months for Bitcoin (BTC), hitting positive returns 10 out of 12 times since 2013, according to CoinGlass, earning it the nickname “Uptober.”
There hasn’t been a loss in October since 2018, when it fell by 3.8%. During the bull market years of 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin surged by 48% and 40%, respectively, in October.
A similar spike this year could see it rise to approximately $165,000 next month from its current price.
Indicators Supporting ‘Uptober’
On Monday, Bitcoin enthusiast Kyle Chassé mentioned that the probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month has risen to 92%, according to CME futures forecasts. He asserted that the “easing cycle is largely priced in” and liquidity is forthcoming, which serves as “the fuel Bitcoin and crypto rely on.”
Analyst ‘Sykodelic’ anticipated on Monday that the markets would dip lower before advancing in October.
“As I’ve been saying for some time, $112,500 is the target, and when we reach that level, we will see the usual suspects advocating for rate cuts becoming bearish and signaling a market peak,” they noted, adding:
“Once we get past this phase, it’s on to new highs and the beginning of the explosive final leg that will elevate the market into euphoria.”
Related: Bitcoin poised to overcome ‘red September’ dip for the third consecutive year
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that crypto will enter “up only mode” once the US Treasury fulfills its target of replenishing the Treasury General Account, after it surged past $850 billion earlier this month. “With this liquidity drain complete, the uptrend can resume,” he commented on X on Saturday.
Others Predict a More Moderate Crypto Rally
Conversely, some analysts warned against excessive optimism.
“We anticipate that any BTC rallies will be relatively subdued due to the extremely low implied volatility and upside skews, declining DAT inflow momentum, and the presence of profit-takers still aiming to limit gains,” stated Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, adding:
“Long-term investors will need to be more patient before we expect new all-time highs.”
Additionally, the chief operating officer at the BTSE exchange, Jeff Mei, remarked, “We believe that the Uptober trend is less likely to materialize this year due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the fact that September has not shown a market decline.”
“However, if the Fed signals more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy, this situation could change.”
Crypto Markets Declined on Monday
The crypto markets began to retreat on Monday morning, with total capitalization decreasing by $80 billion within a few hours as Bitcoin dropped to a twelve-day low of $114,270.
Ether (ETH) also experienced a setback, falling over 4% to dip below $4,300, its lowest point in a fortnight.
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