According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% chance of exceeding $140,000 this month, based on simulations using data from the last ten years.
“There is a 50% likelihood that Bitcoin closes the month above $140k,” Peterson stated in a post on X on Wednesday. “However, there is a 43% chance that Bitcoin ends below $136k,” he added.
Bitcoin (BTC) would need to increase approximately 14.7% to reach $140,000 from its current price of $122,032, which has declined after the cryptocurrency achieved a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, according to CoinMarketCap.
Peterson noted that the simulation indicates “half of Bitcoin’s October gains may already be realized.” He explained to Cointelegraph that the model utilizes Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015 to forecast market behavior over time.
Prediction “not influenced by emotion or bias”
He asserted that the projection is based on “hundreds of simulations grounded in actual data, not emotional or biased reasoning.”
“Every forecast follows consistent logic, reflecting price changes that align with Bitcoin’s historical volatility and patterns,” he added.
Bitcoin commenced October 1 at around $116,500, and an ascent to $140,000 would represent a 20.17% increase for the month, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s historical average for October.
Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best month on average, with average gains of 20.75%, according to CoinGlass.
Peterson claimed that the forecast avoids the influence of “bias and noise” that can sway short-term sentiment.
“The outcome provides a clear, probability-based view of where Bitcoin’s value is most likely headed,” he stated.
Nevertheless, there have been numerous occasions in the past where Bitcoin deviated from market expectations and did not adhere to historical patterns, even when data indicated otherwise with high certainty.
Wider market remains optimistic about Bitcoin
Other cryptocurrency analysts anticipate a higher price for Bitcoin following its all-time high on Monday before it declined.
Crypto analyst Jelle mentioned in an X post on Tuesday that Bitcoin is retesting previous all-time highs and may rise further. “It’s definitely over for the bears. Let it go higher,” Jelle stated.
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Reflecting a similar viewpoint, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland commented in an X post the same day that “the pressure is building.”
However, Peterson stressed that “markets are not random in the short run.”
“They exhibit cyclical patterns in liquidity, sentiment, and positioning. October is historically significant as it marks the transition of institutional capital cycles: the conclusion of Q3 portfolio rebalancing, the initiation of fiscal year planning for funds, and the impending year-end reporting periods,” he elaborated.
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