Due to significant fluctuations, Bitcoin (BTC) has reached new all-time highs (ATHs) this year, only to face sharp corrections of up to 30%. This volatility has led to a growing divide within the cryptocurrency community regarding its future trajectory.
While numerous analysts express concerns about a potential bear market looming in 2026, market expert Shanaka Anslem has shared a different viewpoint on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), suggesting that 2025 may have already marked the true bear market.
Indicators of a Cycle Shift
In his analysis, Anslem points to crucial evidence. For the first time ever, Bitcoin exceeded its previous all-time high before the Halving event in April of this year, which he claims is not a bullish sign, but rather an indication of an inverted cycle.
He argues that 2024 should not be perceived as the dawn of a new bull market; rather, it signifies a period of what he calls “political repricing,” as the market adjusted for a pro-crypto administration with President Donald Trump’s potential reelection.
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According to Anslem, signs of a bear market have emerged in 2025. Bitcoin’s dominance has peaked at multi-year highs, while altcoins continue to falter, resulting in consistent declines in their valuations.
Furthermore, there was a staggering $3.5 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows within a single month. This year also witnessed a notable 29% drawdown from its October highs, along with extreme fear sentiments across various sentiment indices.
Anslem asserts that while the four-year Halving cycle remains significant, its influence has transformed. With $120 billion in ETFs linked to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity, the Halving continues to control BTC’s supply, but demand now aligns more with wider economic factors than the previously crypto-focused reasons.
Is a Major Bitcoin Rally Possible?
What does Anslem’s “cycle inversion” theory suggest for 2026? If the bear market has already hidden behind nominal highs, the next phase might be a true blow-off top.
His forecasts indicate Bitcoin’s price could surge to anywhere between $150,000 and $200,000, especially as global liquidity keeps expanding and funneling capital toward hard assets. Anslem believes many market participants are currently set up for a decline that has already happened.
However, not everyone agrees. Analyst Mr. Wall Street contends that Bitcoin has not yet hit its bottom and this will not be realized in the upcoming weeks or months.
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He emphasizes that the critical support level has been broken, as indicated by the weekly exponential moving average (EMA50) closing below the critical line.
He predicts that the market is entering the initial stages of a significant bear market, which he believes will only ease once Bitcoin reaches the $54,000 to $60,000 range, potentially occurring in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Despite this bearish outlook, he remains cautiously optimistic for Bitcoin in the short term. He anticipates a potential upswing to retest the EMA50 Weekly, which currently hovers around $100,000, though he maintains that mid-term targets are significantly lower.
As of this writing, BTC was priced at $90,352, reflecting a 28% difference between current valuations and previous ATH levels.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
