Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, suggests that Bitcoin could already be experiencing a bear market, having entered it approximately two months ago, as several of his indicators turned bearish in early November.
Related Reading
Moreno highlighted the decline below the one-year moving average as a significant technical indicator, using it to suggest a potential decrease in Bitcoin’s trading range ahead.
Bitcoin Technical Signals, Market Mood
According to Moreno, a realistic bottom might align with the realized price, estimated between $56,000 and $60,000. This would represent a nearly 55% decline from Bitcoin’s all-time high—although considerable, it is less severe than past crashes which saw reductions of 70% or 80%.
Market momentum appears subdued. Bitcoin began 2025 priced around $93,000, reached a high of about $126,050 in October, and concluded the year below its starting point, as reported by CoinGecko. As of Friday, trading hovered around $88,920 based on available data.
Derivatives Show Caution Ahead Of Expiry
Bitcoin remained within the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options neared expiry. Reports indicate that derivatives volume has decreased by 39% while open interest stayed consistent, suggesting a cautious approach from traders rather than aggressive positioning.
Technical analysis shows price compression near support, with traders closely monitoring expiry, as a significant price movement might follow the settlement of these contracts. Volatility levels have been lower compared to previous selloffs, resulting in a tighter price action than many anticipated.
Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock
Moreno and others observe a fundamentally different market environment. Major institutional players and regulated ETFs have been consistently accumulating Bitcoin, and there’s no indication of panic selling from these entities.
This steady demand has mitigated the sort of cascading failures that occurred in 2022, which saw the collapse of Terra, Celsius, and FTX, amplifying market losses. With such substantial shocks missing this time, the current drawdown appears more controlled, even if prices continue to decline.
Outlook Hinges On Macro And Regulation
Despite uncertainties, some analysts anticipate that 2026 may bring new highs, spurred by expected US rate cuts and a potentially more favorable policy environment in Washington. Simultaneously, observers are curious whether Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks will persist as macroeconomic and regulatory decisions unfold.
If the correlation diminishes, cryptocurrencies could carve out their own path. Conversely, if it remains strong, Bitcoin’s trajectory might be significantly influenced by broader market trends rather than crypto-specific dynamics.
Related Reading
What Traders Will Watch
Based on reports and Moreno’s insights, critical factors to observe include the one-year moving average, realized price levels around $56,000–$60,000, the outcomes of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue their steady accumulation.
While price action has been quieter than in some previous crises, this calm conceals genuine downside risks. Analysts and traders remain divided; some predict a return to growth next year, while others brace for lower prices before any substantial recovery emerges.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
