Investors who have stayed away from Bitcoin this year may have a new opportunity to buy in, as a crypto analyst forecasts that Bitcoin could drop by as much as 70% during the next bear market.
However, opinions among crypto analysts vary on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Some believe a bear market is still a long way off, while others anticipate it might happen sooner than expected.
“I would estimate a potential 70% decline from whatever the all-time high ends up being,” Cowen mentioned to Kyle Chasse in an interview released on Thursday, noting that past bear market cycles have seen Bitcoin (BTC) drop by 94%, 87%, and approximately 77%.
“Does it have to happen? No, but history should at least make us aware that it’s a possibility.”
A significant drop from a $250K Bitcoin
With some Bitcoin proponents, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, predicting prices could reach $250,000 by year-end, a 70% dip would lower it to about $75,000.
Cowen stated, “If we see a significant rise in Q4 for me, it’ll simply indicate that this time isn’t different, and I’ll take profits and move to stable assets.” He added that he might hold off on re-entering until mid-2026.
As of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $117,010, showing a 3.41% increase over the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Cowen noted that market participants should anticipate another robust rally but should not overlook how quickly it could peak.
“Clearly, investors are optimistic that we will coil up and head toward that final rally towards the market cycle peak,” he said, asserting that this should be the fundamental expectation.
“But if it starts happening, just keep in mind the peak could occur at any time, right? …No one will recognize it as the top,” he said.
“Everyone will be ecstatic if we begin to see an upward movement,” he added.
ETH may outperform Bitcoin as the cycle concludes
Meanwhile, Cowen also anticipates that Ether (ETH) will “face challenges” against Bitcoin for a few more weeks, but he believes it will ultimately outperform Bitcoin as the cycle winds down.
“I expect Ethereum to likely outperform until the end of the cycle,” Cowen stated.
“I foresee weakness for ETH through October,” he added. The ETH/BTC ratio, which indicates Ether’s strength compared to Bitcoin, has increased by 8.56% over the past month, according to TradingView.
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Some Bitcoin enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin’s price will continue to follow its typical four-year cycle, while others remain uncertain.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan remarked, “I bet 2026 will be an upward year.” “I generally believe we’re in for several good years,” Hougan added.
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently stated, “I believe there’s a greater than 50% likelihood Bitcoin will reach the $140 to $150 range this year before encountering another bear market next year.”
In contrast, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor stated in June, “Winter is not returning.”
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