BTC price struggles to surpass $92,000, indicating a potential dead-cat bounce.

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price to the $92,000 resistance level is accompanied by weak bullish volume, raising doubts about the sustainability of this movement, which might be just a temporary recovery before a more significant pullback.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices are showing initial signs of fatigue following a sharp rise from the 0.618 value area low. Despite the significant rebound, the lack of robust volume raises questions about the rally’s viability. As the price approaches a crucial resistance cluster near $92,000, traders are looking for indicators that this upward movement may fail.

As the bearish trend remains evident on higher time frames, Bitcoin now encounters a pivotal test to ascertain whether an upward continuation can occur or if a deeper corrective phase is beginning.

Key Technical Points for BTC Pricing

• Bitcoin has rallied from the 0.618 value area low into resistance at the point of control.
• The recent bounce lacks significant bullish volume, undermining its reliability.
• Dropping below $89,000 could pave the way for a deeper decline towards $86,000.

Bitcoin’s recent movements began with an aggressive ascent from the 0.618 value area low, leading to a swift rebound up toward the point of control. This area coincides with another 0.618 Fibonacci level just above it, creating a zone of significant resistance. Ideally, this should have been the moment where bullish momentum surged to support further upward movement. However, the rally has been largely void of substantial volume, signaling a crucial warning.

For any breakout to hold, it is essential for bullish volume to increase as the price approaches resistance. Its absence makes rallies susceptible to failure. In Bitcoin’s case, the current volume insufficiency indicates that this movement may lack authentic strength, resembling more of a dead-cat bounce—a fleeting recovery within a larger downtrend before prices resume their decline.

Even the news of Harvard increasing its Bitcoin ETF investment by 257 percent in Q3 2024 has not garnered stronger market engagement, underscoring the fragility of the current rebound.

If Bitcoin fails to decisively reclaim the point of control and starts trending downward, the next critical level is the high-time-frame support at $89,000. Historically, this has functioned as a structural anchor for the trading range. A drop below this would confirm that bulls couldn’t sustain the rally and would tilt the odds toward a more profound corrective phase.

If the $89,000 level fails, the next major downside target shifts to the high-time-frame support around $86,000. This area hasn’t been approached since earlier in the quarter and harbors a significant liquidity pool. Markets typically move toward such levels when momentum fades. A decline toward this lower support would align with Bitcoin’s overarching tendency to maintain rotational behavior within its broader multi-month range.

From a structural viewpoint, the resistance cluster near $92,000 is one of the most critical areas on the chart. It represents the central point of the macro distribution zone and has acted as a rejection point multiple times this month. If prices fail to exceed this level convincingly, it will be interpreted as another unsuccessful attempt, further perpetuating the existing bearish trend.

Even ETF analyst Eric Balchunas challenging the “Bitcoin is tulip mania” analogy has done little to alter sentiment at this key juncture, emphasizing the persistent strength of technical resistance.

A rejection in this zone would thus confirm that the current rise was merely a temporary counter-trend movement. This behavior characterizes dead-cat bounces: a swift upward thrust without volume follow-through, resulting in trapped buyers and an eventual downturn back into the prevailing trend.

Outlook for Upcoming Price Movements

If Bitcoin loses the point of control and dips below $89,000, a deeper corrective move down to $86,000 becomes probable. Only a breakout above $92,000 backed by strong volume would negate the dead-cat bounce scenario and revert momentum to bullish.