On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve declared its third interest rate reduction of the year, boosting US equities while Bitcoin (BTC) initially dipped before recovering.
This trend has characterized the latter half of 2025. While the influx of capital into Bitcoin increasingly correlates with traditional equity investors, the cryptocurrency continues to move independently of the stock market.
In the past six months, Bitcoin has decreased by nearly 18%. In contrast, the three major US stock indices saw robust and steady growth, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 21%, the S&P 500 up 14.35%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 12.11%.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin achieved significant milestones this year, including reaching new all-time highs and avoiding the typical “red September” for the third consecutive year.
Here’s how Bitcoin’s separation from equities has broadened throughout the second half of the year.
July: GENIUS Act boosts crypto
July 2025 was characterized by strong equity performance and a robust risk appetite that persisted despite significant tariff announcements.
Early-July trade discussions caused temporary turbulence, but markets quickly refocused on corporate earnings and underlying growth fundamentals.
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On July 9, AI chip giant Nvidia became the first company to achieve a $4-trillion valuation. On the same day, equities dismissed trade-related shocks, resulting in new record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq despite the US announcing 50% tariffs on copper.
Bitcoin concluded July with a gain of 8.13%, marking its strongest monthly performance in the second half of the year, including December. The crypto markets gained momentum after US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, fostering renewed optimism in the sector, especially for stablecoin-related businesses.
Corporate adoption remained a significant theme, with firms continuing to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets as part of digital asset treasury strategies. By July, interest in other major cryptocurrencies, including Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL), also began to rise.
August: Powell’s speech propels Ether to ATH
In August, expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would soon implement interest rate cuts. These anticipations fueled a widespread rally across traditional markets, while crypto surged even faster. Bitcoin skyrocketed to a new all-time high of approximately $124,000 on Aug. 14 as the US dollar weakened amidst escalating trade tensions.
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium subsequently refocused market attention on monetary policy. On Aug. 22, Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued a dovish signal, indicating that further rate cuts were possible later in the year, which catapulted Ether to a new all-time high.
While equities reacted positively, Bitcoin could not maintain its momentum. The asset experienced a brief surge immediately after Powell’s speech before continuing its downward trend. By the end of the month, Bitcoin’s post-ATH correction had notably diverged from traditional markets, closing August down by 6.49%.
September: First rate cut of 2025
Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month. Together with June, it is one of only two months that displays an average negative return, earning it the nickname “red September.”
However, in 2025, Bitcoin defied this trend, achieving its third consecutive positive September. This gain was attributed to the Fed’s first rate cut of the year, a 25-basis-point decrease justified by indications of a cooling labor market. Bitcoin ended the month up 5.16%.
Related: Bitcoin on track to overcome ‘red September’ fall for third straight year
Equities also saw positive responses, extending their rally in the third quarter as markets priced in the possibility of further monetary easing in October.
Conversely, Bitcoin faced an internal challenge. The community became divided over a significant network upgrade that would eliminate limits on the amount of arbitrary data allowed on the blockchain.
Bitcoin Core, the most widely used software by miners and node operators, endorsed lifting the limit. However, proponents against embedding non-financial data on Bitcoin as spam opposed this change, which led to increased adoption of Bitcoin Knots as an alternative solution.
October: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China
Bitcoin reached another all-time high on Oct. 6, but the month was ultimately overshadowed by the largest liquidation event in Bitcoin’s history, wiping out approximately $19 billion in positions.
Several factors contributed to the liquidation cascade that drove Bitcoin below $110,000. These included a price glitch on Binance and the industry’s significant reliance on futures-based trading, which intensified forced liquidations as prices dropped.
The immediate trigger was a social media post by President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which caused a sharp sell-off across both crypto and equity markets.
Though October is often dubbed Uptober in the crypto community due to its historically strong performance, 2025 proved to be an exception. Bitcoin broke a five-year trend of positive Octobers and ended the month down 3.69%, even as major stock indices rebounded from trade-related shocks.
By the end of the month, the Fed executed its second consecutive rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the US government remained closed throughout October, experiencing what became the longest government shutdown in history.
November: Conclusion of the US government shutdown
While October is known as Uptober, November has been historically Bitcoin’s strongest month, reflecting an average gain of 41.12% — more than double October’s average return of around 20%.
However, in 2025, November turned out to be Bitcoin’s poorest-performing month of the year, with the asset declining by 17.67%. Selling pressure escalated throughout the month, driving Bitcoin below the $100,000 threshold by mid-November.
The divergence from equities was stark. Stock markets traded mostly sideways as the US government shutdown concluded. Investors remained cautious of a potential AI-driven bubble, though some concerns eased later in the month after Nvidia reported outstanding earnings for the third quarter, stabilizing sentiment across technology stocks.
Bitcoin’s year-end target revised down
Currently, Bitcoin has risen approximately 2% in December, with major equity indices also realizing slight gains. Bitcoin’s average return in December stands at 4.54% at the time of writing.
Although the holiday season has been relatively calm for Bitcoin in recent years, historical trends indicate that the crypto market doesn’t necessarily slow down during the festive period.
For instance, in December 2020, Bitcoin jumped nearly 47%, even amidst significant news from the US Securities and Exchange Commission announcing a years-long lawsuit against Ripple Labs and its executives.
This year, much of the enthusiasm surrounding a possible year-end rally for Bitcoin has diminished. Multiple market analysts have downgraded their price targets for the cryptocurrency, including Standard Chartered.
The bank had initially projected a year-end price of $200,000 for Bitcoin but revised that target to $100,000 on Monday. Additionally, Standard Chartered has postponed its long-term forecast for Bitcoin to hit $500,000, moving the target from 2028 to 2030.
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