Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the second week of December trading above $90,000 as conversations about a “Santa rally” emerge.
Current BTC price movements focus on a significant resistance level in the low $90,000 range, yet traders anticipate another pullback.
The upcoming Federal interest-rate decision looms over risk assets, despite a widespread belief that a rate cut is likely.
The Fed’s decision will impact the likelihood of a Santa rally in the stock market, according to analysis.
Seasonality indicates that the timing for this year’s “bear market” bottom may mirror that of 2022 for Bitcoin.
Open interest and leverage are subdued, suggesting a potential glimmer of hope for bulls.
Fibonacci level becomes crucial BTC price support
The volatility of Bitcoin prices resurfaced as the weekly close approached—a trend that has become increasingly common this quarter.
After dropping to around $87,000, BTC/USD achieved a weekly close near the $90,000 level before experiencing further unpredictable movements on shorter time frames, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Traders have thus remained cautious of false breakout movements in both directions.
In a recent post on X, trader CrypNuevo noted the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential retest target.
“For shorts, I’m aiming for a 1D50EMA retest, expecting it to adjust around $95.5k, marking the upper range,” he stated.
CrypNuevo mentioned that Bitcoin lacks a “clear base” for entering long positions, with the low $80,000 region still viable.
“There are some liquidations in both directions, but slightly more towards the upside in the $94.5k-$95.3k zone. If the price reaches there first, I’ll be seeking short signals for a potential retest of the low $80’s,” he added, alongside charts showing exchange order-book liquidity data.
Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe expressed a more optimistic view, pointing to “intense” buying pressure among Bitcoin holders at local lows.
“Given the significant buying pressure, I anticipate we’ll break upwards and maintain above $92K in the following days,” he shared with followers on X Monday.
“This could lead to a rally towards $100K before 2026.”
Conversely, trader Daan Crypto Trades applied Fibonacci retracement levels to highlight a crucial point for bulls. This is set at $84,000, a level that experienced a retest at the start of December.
“We’re still holding above that .382 area from the overall bull market thus far,” he noted in his analysis.
“I believe this is a critical area for bulls to defend. It’s essentially the last significant support prior to testing the April lows again, which would disrupt this high timeframe market structure.”
FOMC week finds Fed struggling with labor market
This week offers little in the way of US macroeconomic data releases, shifting focus entirely to the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene to determine interest-rate changes, with markets anticipating a 0.25% cut.
Recent employment data indicates a decline in the labor market, signaling a greater necessity for rate reductions. Analysts perceive the Fed caught in a difficult position as inflation persists, which a cut could exacerbate.
“Nonfarm payrolls have now seen 5 declines in the last 7 months, marking the worst streak in over 5 years,” noted trading resource The Kobeissi Letter in part of a weekend X post on US job statistics.
“The job market deterioration is escalating.”
Analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company took a more positive view, identifying favorable conditions for risk assets.
“With inflation running above target, the economy holding steady, and the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs, the Fed appears poised to lower rates for a third consecutive meeting,” it noted in its latest newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic added that it “can’t envision more favorable circumstances to boost the stock market than rate cuts amidst supportive financial conditions, alongside economic growth benefitting earnings forecasts.”
On FOMC day, markets will observe Fed Chair Jerome Powell for cues regarding future policy direction as he provides remarks and answers press queries post-announcement.
This weekend, Kobeissi characterized Powell’s dismissal of “stagflation” risks during the May 2024 FOMC press conference as “the day the Fed lost control.”
May 4th, 2024: The day the Fed lost control.
Fed Chair Powell responds to stagflation concerns, “I don’t see the stag or the flation.”
18 months later, inflation remains above 3%, and the labor market is at its weakest since the pandemic.
Own assets. pic.twitter.com/gpBdXnfH7Y
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 6, 2025
Santa rally discussion comes with Fed caveat
If stocks are on the verge of an ideal blend of bullish catalysts to finish the year, crypto analysts are already contemplating whether the “Santa rally” will carry over.
The Santa rally is real, but the timelines are unpredictable.
Will a Santa rally occur this year? 👇 pic.twitter.com/YnsAjXqBbx
— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 6, 2025
As Cointelegraph highlighted, crypto has significantly lagged behind stocks in Q4, with the S&P 500 nearing new all-time highs.
Network economist Timothy Peterson observes that the stars typically align favorably for Bitcoin as the year closes.
On the flip side, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, believes BTC/USD is on course for a “sideways” conclusion to 2025.
“Historically, Bitcoin spends an average of 170 days in negative territory,” Wedson explained with a chart illustrating cumulative negative BTC price trading days.
“In 2025, it has already accrued 171 negative days—strongly suggesting this year is likely to conclude in a sideways price range. If a more substantial decline is forthcoming, it will likely materialize in 2026.”
Previously, Cointelegraph reported that the Santa outcome remains contingent on the Fed’s actions.
“The S&P 500’s pullback from late October to November coincided with diminishing odds for another rate cut this month. Recent statements from key Fed officials increased the likelihood of a cut, which also spurred a stock market recovery,” Mosaic Asset Company concurred.
Is $89,000 the new $16,000 for Bitcoin?
When examining Bitcoin price cycles and seasonality, the latest information provides bulls with reasons to maintain confidence in the outlook.
Uploaded to X this weekend by Peterson, a comparison between BTC/USD this year and in 2022-23 implies that a long-term price bottom may either be reached or imminent.
In late 2022, Bitcoin hit a multi-year low of $15,600, having bottomed out after a grueling bear market that erased 80% of its value compared to previous all-time highs.
The recovery commenced as soon as 2023 rolled in, and if historical patterns hold, holders may face only weeks of waiting before upward momentum resumes.
“$89,000 is the new $16,000,” Peterson concluded.
As Cointelegraph reported, parallels to 2022 have been increasingly referenced since October, when Bitcoin abruptly ended its streak of new all-time highs to plummet 36% over a six-week span.
In late November, Peterson noted that the price correlation with 2022 had hit 98% on monthly timeframes.
Open interest points to Bitcoin “apathy”
A positive sign from Bitcoin derivatives markets keeps a complete market rally within reach.
Related: Bitcoin profit metric eyes 2-year lows in ‘complete reset:’ BTC analysis
New data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicates that open interest (OI) across Bitcoin exchanges has fallen to its lowest levels since April, when BTC/USD traded at $75,000.
“This decrease generally signals two things: 1) investor capitulation, or 2) investor apathy,” contributor COINDREAM noted in a recent “Quicktake” blog post by CryptoQuant on Monday.
“Historically, times of apathy and low participation have frequently marked attractive buy-the-dip scenarios.”
COINDREAM highlighted that, despite a slight price recovery from recent lows of $80,500, traders have not shown much inclination to use leverage.
“Excessive leverage often hinders market direction. However, as prices have recently bounced back, leverage levels have normalized, diminishing systemic risk,” it added.
CryptoQuant’s estimated leverage ratio metric, which assesses OI against BTC reserves, has seen a marked decline since mid-November.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
