Key points:
Bitcoin is poised for a breakout following unprecedented Bollinger Bands “tightness,” though the direction is uncertain.
Historically, such scenarios typically resolve within approximately three months.
BTC price movements suggest the onset of a new “price discovery uptrend.”
According to a recent analysis of BTC price volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a “parabolic” phase or conclude its bull market within the next 100 days.
In an X post on Wednesday, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino stated that Bitcoin’s next movement depends on the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.
BTC price faces a new breakout dilemma
Bollinger Bands, a traditional volatility measure that serves as a leading price indicator, recently recorded unprecedented “tightness” on weekly timeframes.
Analysts are monitoring for a subsequent price breakout through either the upper or lower outer band.
Severino cautioned that such a move might not happen immediately and could extend beyond three months.
“Currently, BTCUSD has not successfully broken out above the upper band with any substantial strength,” he remarked.
“Based on historical local consolidation ranges, it could take over 100 days to achieve a valid breakout (or a breakdown if BTC declines instead).”
This timeframe is derived from past Bollinger Band breakouts observed since the bull market commenced in early 2023.
Severino noted that a definitive break through either band with a single daily candle would serve as a crucial signal, though he warned that deceptive breakout moves might also occur.
“Caution: expanding from a tight Squeeze like this can result in head fakes. We might have witnessed one during Bitcoin’s recent peak above $126,000,” he added.
“We may experience another head fake downward from this point before eventually climbing higher.”
Bitcoin ”price discovery uptrend” next?
As reported by Cointelegraph, previous bull markets have led traders to anticipate a blow-off top for BTC/USD in October.
Related: BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
However, recent price actions have yet to exhibit the rapid gains typically seen in the final stage of bull runs.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who reported the impending peak last month, noted that BTC price cycles are lengthening, not shortening.
“It’s improbable that Bitcoin has already reached its peak in this Bull Market, as that would imply this cycle was one of the briefest in history,” he rightly argued at the time when $124,500 was still the all-time high.
This week, Rekt Capital suggested the potential emergence of a new “price discovery uptrend.”
Price Discovery Correction 2 has concluded
Ultimately, it was indeed shallower, but it took roughly the same time to resolve as in previous cycles (2017, 2021)
Bitcoin appears to be on the verge of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/YdXQqHd82w pic.twitter.com/n7xvcr8aTo
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2025
Severino emphasized that the breakout from the Bollinger Bands will significantly influence the bull market. He remarked:
“This could potentially drive Bitcoin parabolic or mark the end of the three-year bull rally.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
