Important points:
Bitcoin may revisit the $111,000–$113,000 range, reflecting the breakout pattern observed in Q2.
The URPD metric indicates that 5.5% of BTC supply is concentrated between $110,000–$113,000.
New mid-sized holders have absorbed whale distributions totaling 715,000 BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged nearly 6% this September, defying its usual bearish trends. Following a strong weekly showing, the asset peaked within a significant supply zone spanning $115,600 to $117,300. A definitive close above $117,300 could hint at a push towards new highs.
With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and anticipated interest rate cuts on Wednesday, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a slight correction, dipping below $114,500. This dip might represent a favorable buying opportunity.
Technically, the crucial retest zone lies within $111,000 and $113,000, paralleling the structure noted in Q2. In June, BTC rose from below $100,000 to $109,000, consolidating just under the $110,000 resistance.
Post a brief rejection, the market absorbed liquidity around $105,000 before breaking out to new highs in July above $120,000.
A similar trend seems to be forming currently. To maintain the uptrend, Bitcoin needs to stay within the $111,000–$113,000 range. A drop below this level could undermine the bullish scenario, while stability could indicate another breakout.
The relative strength index (RSI) supports this perspective, having reclaimed the 50 level and is now testing it as support. Historically, such setups have foreshadowed renewed buying momentum, as seen in June.
Crypto analyst ShayanBTC pointed out that miner activity is affirming the positive outlook,
“The combination of a technical structure shift and miner accumulation provides a constructive outlook. As long as $112K holds, Bitcoin appears well-positioned to sustain momentum.”
Related: Bitcoin daily dip hits 2% as ‘classic’ BTC price action precedes FOMC
“New” Bitcoin investors have emerged, says analyst
The significance of the $113,000 zone as a potential support level stems from the URPD (UTXO realized price distribution) metric, which illustrates the distribution of Bitcoin supply based on purchase price. Recent data shows that a substantial 5.5% of BTC supply has transacted within the $110,000–$113,000 range, underlining its position as one of the more actively accumulated levels in recent weeks.
This accumulation indicates that a significant base of holders believes this level represents long-term value.
The trend is further supported by wallet cohort behaviors. Since July 2024, Shark wallets (holding 100–1,000 BTC) have accumulated nearly 1 million BTC, raising their total to 5.939 million BTC. This consistent increase suggests the entry of new, mid-sized players building their exposure.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted that simultaneously, notable distribution has been seen from larger cohorts. Whale wallets (1,000–10,000 BTC) have decreased their holdings by 324,000 BTC since March 2024, while Humpbacks (≥10,000 BTC) cut their balances by 391,000 BTC.
In total, around 715,000 BTC have entered the market since last year’s highs.
Importantly, this supply has been primarily absorbed by smaller, newer participants, highlighting a structural change that suggests the $113,000 level may represent one of the final significant “discounts” before an upswing.
Related: Traders say Bitcoin’s ‘bullish’ weekly close sets path for $120K BTC price
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Investment and trading ventures carry risks, and readers should conduct their own due diligence before making decisions.
