Bitcoin (BTC) may experience ongoing corrections toward the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) implements the anticipated interest-rate hike on Dec. 19, as indicated by several macroeconomic analysts.
Key takeaways:
BoJ’s tightening measures could pressure Bitcoin by draining global liquidity.
Both macro and technical indicators suggest a downside target of $70,000.
Previous BoJ hikes preceded 20-30% BTC price drops
Data shared by AndrewBTC indicates that every BoJ rate hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin price declines exceeding 20%.
In a recent X post, this analyst pointed out BTC drops of approximately 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.
AndrewBTC cautioned that similar downside pressures might arise again if the BoJ increases rates on Friday. A recent Reuters poll indicated that most economists expect another rate hike at the December policy meeting.
This argument hinges on Japan’s impact on global liquidity.
Historically, BoJ rate hikes have boosted the Japanese yen, raising the cost of borrowing and investing in riskier assets. This often compelled traders to unwind “yen carry trades,” causing liquidity to tighten in global markets.
As liquidity decreases, Bitcoin faces pressure, leading investors to lower leverage and reduce exposure during periods of risk aversion.
Analyst EX remarked that BTC is likely to “drop below $70,000” under these macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin bear flag points to the same $70,000 region
Bitcoin’s daily chart presents technical warning signs, with price action consolidating within a classic bear flag formation.
The formation emerged following BTC’s sharp decline from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, leading to a narrow upward-sloping consolidation channel. Such patterns often signal temporary pauses before a continuation of the trend.
Related: BTC OGs selling covered calls are a primary factor in suppressing prices: Analyst
A confirmed breakdown below the lower trendline of the flag could initiate another downward move, with projections targeting the $70,000–$72,500 area. Various analysts, including James Check and Sellén, have provided similar downside targets recently.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
