Highlights:
Bitcoin is poised for a breakout following a record Bollinger Bands “tightness,” but the direction is still unclear.
Historically, such scenarios typically resolve within approximately three months.
BTC’s price action hints at the beginning of a new “price discovery uptrend.”
According to a recent analysis of BTC price volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) could enter a “parabolic” phase or conclude its bull market in the upcoming 100 days.
In an X post on Wednesday, trader Tony “The Bull” Severino indicated that Bitcoin’s forthcoming move is contingent upon the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator.
BTC price confronted with breakout uncertainty
Bollinger Bands, a well-known volatility metric serving as a leading price indicator, recently logged record “tightness” in weekly timeframes.
Analysts are monitoring for a follow-through price breakout, whether through the upper or lower outer band.
Severino cautioned that such movement may not happen right away and could extend beyond three months.
“Currently, BTCUSD has not managed to break out above the upper band with significant strength,” he stated.
“Based on historical local consolidation periods, a valid breakout (or a breakdown, in case BTC declines) might take as long as 100+ days.”
This timeframe is derived from past Bollinger Band breakouts during the bull market that commenced in early 2023.
Severino noted that a definitive break through either band with a single daily candle would be a crucial indicator, but also mentioned the potential for false breakout movements.
“Caution: expanding from a Squeeze setup like this can produce head fakes. We might have just seen one with Bitcoin’s latest all-time high above $126,000,” he added.
“There could also be another head fake downward before we eventually move higher.”
Is Bitcoin on the verge of “price discovery uptrend” next?
As noted by Cointelegraph, preceding bull markets have led traders to anticipate a blow-off top for BTC/USD in October.
Related: BTC October price breakout odds low: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
However, price action has yet to exhibit the rapid increase typical of the concluding phase of bull runs.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who reported on the deadline for the peak, observed last month that BTC price cycles are lengthening rather than shortening.
“It’s improbable that Bitcoin has peaked in its Bull Market already, as that would essentially suggest this cycle was among the shortest in history,” he argued accurately while the all-time high was still at $124,500.
This week, Rekt Capital announced the possible initiation of a new “price discovery uptrend.”
Price Discovery Correction 2 is finished
Ultimately, it was shallower but took roughly the same time to resolve as previous cycles (2017, 2021)
Now, Bitcoin stands on the brink of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/YdXQqHd82w pic.twitter.com/n7xvcr8aTo
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 6, 2025
Severino emphasized that the outcome of the Bollinger Bands breakout will significantly influence the bull market. He remarked:
“This could either send Bitcoin parabolic, or bring an end to the three-year-long mature bull rally.”
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
