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The CME gap renders Bitcoin’s rebound tenuous, despite on-chain metrics indicating holder conviction.
Summary
- The CME Bitcoin futures gap has opened, which may lead to a rapid price correction if it gets closed.
- On-chain MVRV and long-term holder activity suggest minimal selling pressure is present.
- Important levels to monitor include support around $109k–$111k and resistance near the $115k–$118k range.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $111,804, reflecting a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours. The weekly range fluctuates between $108,964 and $113,874, remaining approximately 9.9% shy of its all-time high of $124,128 set on August 14. The 24-hour spot volume surged to $38.26 billion, demonstrating significant trading activity across exchanges.
In the derivatives market, CoinGlass data reveals that Bitcoin (BTC) futures volume has risen by 113% to $56.7 billion, while open interest increased by about 1.6% to $78.7 billion. This indicates heightened short-term trading activity, with more participants taking positions but without substantial, ongoing leverage build-up.
CME futures gap introduces short-term risk
A new concern for traders is the CME futures gap that emerged when U.S. futures commenced trading on September 29. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted this gap and cautioned that a quick closure would undermine the short-term structure, and a drop below $111,000 could be detrimental.
Historically, CME gaps tend to close rapidly, leading many desks to focus on the $111,000 mark as critical for immediate risk assessment.
Simultaneously, on-chain indicators suggest underlying resilience. Contributor XWIN Research Japan from CryptoQuant highlighted on September 28 that the MVRV ratio is hovering around 2.0, indicating a stable market environment free from panic or excessive enthusiasm. Long-term holders remain largely inactive in selling, which limits supply and aids in maintaining price stability.
Overall, this suggests that while there are short-term risks from the CME gap, the overall market cycle remains robust.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price
The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin’s trading activity within a range following the August surge. The 20-day Bollinger band is flattening, and the price has recently rebounded from the lower band. The relative strength index stands around 46, indicating a neutral stance but slightly favoring sellers until momentum shifts.
Oscillator indicators present a mixed outlook. The MACD shows slightly negative momentum, with recent upticks favoring buyers, while the ADX around ~18 indicates a weak trend. Traders should pay attention to volume on any significant moves; heightened volume would confirm directionality, whereas low volume could heighten the risk of a false breakout.
Crucial short-term support is identified in the range of $109,000–$111,000. A substantial breach below this zone may drive the price down towards the 200-day moving average near $106,000, potentially leading to renewed selling pressure.
On the upside, sellers seem positioned between $115,000 and $118,000. A decisive breakthrough above $118,000 could pave the way for a return towards the $123,000–$124,000 region.
