Highlights:
Bitcoin’s critical price level to watch as the weekly close approaches: $114,000.
Bid liquidity is positioned beneath local lows, indicating a potentially “weak” market structure for BTC.
The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September declines despite a US-EU trade agreement.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced fluctuations during Thursday’s Wall Street opening as traders absorbed news of a US-EU trade deal.
Analyst identifies crucial BTC price point
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicated BTC/USD fluctuating near the $114,000 level.
This threshold has been a source of short-term resistance, with bulls appearing stalled, even as macroeconomic updates show minimal signs of trend alteration.
“Bitcoin is evidently rejecting around the $114k resistance on the daily chart,” noted popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital in a recent post on X.
The previous day, Rekt Capital mentioned that further downward movement in BTC prices would hinge on convincingly breaching the $114,000 mark, with the weekly close relative to this price also being pivotal.
This is the price action to monitor in the near term
Bitcoin must persist in rejecting at $114k to initiate downward momentum
Ultimately, $114k needs to be decisively lost for BTC to move lower
The weekly close in relation to $114k will be critical$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/6Yubx4CqHd pic.twitter.com/VfJicvzqjf
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 20, 2025
Another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out an “interesting” range for a local low situated between approximately $109,850 and $111,900.
“Prices falling further would likely indicate a weakening structure,” he informed his followers on X.
“In general, we want to avoid seeing prices revert back into a previously established large range/consolidation zone after a breakout.”
Order-book data from CoinGlass indicated that the day’s lows aligned with a band of bid liquidity beginning at $112,900.
Uncertainty ahead of Jackson Hole symposium
The trade agreement had minimal influence on US stock markets, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index fluctuating after the opening bell.
Related: Analyst predicts Bitcoin won’t drop below $100K ‘this cycle’ with $145K target still in view.
In the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium, expectations for interest-rate cuts at the September meeting deteriorated.
The chances of no rate cut rose to 36% on prediction service Kalshi — the highest since August 1, as noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter.
Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool expressed a more optimistic outlook, providing 25% odds that rates would remain unchanged.
“Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last rate-setting meeting showed an increasing consensus regarding risks to the inflation outlook. Most FOMC members believed the inflation upside outweighed employment risks,” trading firm Mosaic Asset noted in a Thursday update.
Mosaic highlighted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s anticipated speech at Jackson Hole on Friday is highly significant.
“Historically, Powell has used this event to announce crucial shifts in monetary policy,” it noted.
“If concerns regarding inflation persist beyond labor market risks, Powell may temper expectations around rate cuts in upcoming meetings until more data comes in.”
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
