Price Forecast
Our outlook for the remainder of 2025 predicts bitcoin reaching a target range of $150,000 to $160,000, propelled by expectations of a policy shift from the Fed, reduced interest rates in the U.S., favorable liquidity conditions, and a positive regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies.
The recent decision by the Trump administration to permit cryptocurrencies in 401(k)s contributes significantly to the narrative of crypto adoption and paves the way for expanding the existing crypto market cap through the estimated $9 trillion retirement market in the U.S.
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Current Crypto Catalysts
- Liquidity Conditions: Continued liquidity support from the PBOC and overall growth in Global M2.
- Corporates & Funds: Institutions actively engaging their balance sheets in bitcoin like never before. Moreover, the number of bitcoin and ether funds continues to rise rapidly.
- ISM Survey Expected to Exceed 50.0: A positive ISM survey historically correlates with the onset of “alt season.”
Quantitative Models and Risks
Our quantitative models reflect a positive sentiment, indicating substantial potential for further upward movement in bitcoin and the wider market:
- Our Vanguard Model, a trend detection system, continues to issue strong long signals weekly.
- Weekly closes above $119,000 will sustain bullish momentum and reinforce the technical landscape for greater upward movement into unexplored territories for bitcoin.
Source: Biyond.co, August 2025
Risks
- An increase in negative economic indicators in the U.S., leading to stagflation concerns and risk-averse behavior due to fears of a global downturn.
- A significant decline in the S&P 500 during Q3, potentially from the 6,660 level, which remains a crucial target.
- Adverse tariff news, particularly a breakdown in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.
- Massive profit-taking by ETF holders if bitcoin surpasses $150,000 or even $160,000
Insights from the Demark Indicator
The Demark TD Sequential monthly chart suggests a potential peak at the year’s end, as the index approaches setup 9 and countdown 13. Historical patterns indicate that when the Demark indicator nears 9 or 13, it signals strong conditions of overbought exhaustion.
Source: Symbolik Demark TD Sequential
Crypto Total Market Cap
The potential upward breakout of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization chart introduces a new dynamic to the ongoing bullish catalysts previously mentioned. Specifically:
- A preliminary Q3 target of five trillion USD.
- A widespread crypto market rally involving the top 150 cryptocurrencies.
- Minimal downside risk below 4 trillion USD once a definitive chart breakout occurs.
Conclusion
Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are positioned to potentially surge to new highs, with anticipated values ranging between $150,000-160,000 and a total market capitalization of five trillion USD.
Significant upcoming risk factors include rising CPI figures in the following months and possible stagnation in trade discussions between the U.S. and China, though it seems more likely to be a temporary postponement of negotiations to satisfy market sentiment.
Considering the positive developments around bitcoin and the technical indicators, there is a strong argument for continued significant price appreciation as we approach year-end.
