Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Reserves Reach Lowest Point in 8 Months: Is a BTC Price Surge to $68K on the Horizon?

Long-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) have continued to decrease their BTC holdings, reaching the lowest levels since April.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin long-term holders have cut their supply to 72%, the lowest since April.

• The BTC price may face a significant correction to $68,500 if critical support levels fail.

Bitcoin long-term holder supply drops to April levels

Long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days—have decreased their holdings to 14.3 million BTC in December from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July, according to Glassnode data. 

This reduction has brought the percentage of supply held by these investors down to 71.92%, a level last observed in April, as illustrated in the chart below.

Related: Bitcoin sharks are accumulating at the fastest rate in 13 years, with BTC down 30%

The April numbers came as Bitcoin fell from an all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, hitting a low of $74,000. LTHs capitalized on the low prices, increasing their supply to 76% in July, which contributed to a 65% surge in Bitcoin’s price, reaching a record high of $123,000.

If a similar situation arises, LTHs may see the current BTC price decline to $84,000 as a chance to boost their holdings, potentially driving a recovery to new all-time highs in the coming months.

Looking at the bigger picture, LTH supply generally experiences sharp declines during retail-driven cycles and LTH selling that coincides with market peaks, as observed in 2017 and 2021.

Examing the changes in LTH supply, data from CryptoQuant indicates that on a 30-day rolling basis, supply had decreased by 1.1 million BTC as of November 26, marking the second-largest drop recorded. 

As of Monday, the LTH supply had fallen by 761,000 coins over the last month, indicating that these investors are capitulating amid fears of further price declines.

As reported by Cointelegraph, whales have sold $2.78 billion in BTC over the past month, maintaining significant downside pressure. 

Can BTC price avert a drop below $70,000?

Bitcoin’s technical structure has weakened after losing support from the 50-week moving average (MA) and the yearly open at $93,300.

The initial area of concern now lies between the local low of $83,800 (reached on December 1) and the multi-month low of $80,500, recorded on November 21.

Should this support zone be breached, it would pave the way for a more substantial correction towards the target of the flag at $68,500, which is backed by the 200-week MA. Such a move would represent a 20% decrease from the current price.

“BTC has declined again, confirming the bearish flag,” analyst Nic mentioned in a post on X, adding that the next “potential support” could be at the 100-week EMA at $85,500.

“If we breach that, there are critical on-chain levels like $83.8K (ETF cost basis) and $81.2K (true market mean),” before considering $80,000,” the analyst further explained.

As noted by Cointelegraph, the 20-day EMA has started to decline, and the RSI is in negative territory, signaling that bearish sentiment is dominating.

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