Reflecting on 2025, the victory in the sound money debate, or debasement trade, clearly went to metals over bitcoin. Gold had one of its most remarkable years, soaring by 65%, while bitcoin has seen a decrease of 7% thus far.
Up until August, both assets were nearly neck and neck, each experiencing an increase of around 30%. Following that, gold skyrocketed, whereas bitcoin faced a significant downturn.
This shift confirmed that gold had triumphed in the debasement trade narrative, leaving bitcoin trailing.
As of now, bitcoin is attempting to recover from a 36% decline since its peak in October, struggling to maintain a position around $80,000.
Nevertheless, despite showing price weakness, the flow of capital paints a different picture.
Bradley Duke, managing director at Bitwise, highlighted that bitcoin exchange traded product (ETP) flows surpassed those of gold ETPs in 2025, despite gold’s exceptional performance.
The launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked the first year of institutional adoption, while the following year saw continued robust engagement even as prices did not climb.
A key takeaway from the current bitcoin correction is the resilience of ETF investors. Even with a 36% price drop, total assets under management (AUM) in bitcoin ETFs fell by less than 4%.
Data from Checkonchain indicates that U.S. ETFs held 1.37 million BTC at the peak in October and still hold approximately 1.32 million as of December 19. This suggests that the majority of the sell-off did not originate from ETF holders. During this correction, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has increased its market share, now controlling nearly 60% with around 780,000 BTC under management.
It is evident that bitcoin’s correction was not the result of ETF outflows.
