Bitcoin surged beyond $114,000 on Monday, continuing a rally that has defied its typical September downturn. This surge follows a brief testing of support around $107,000 earlier this month before rebounding robustly.
The increase marks bitcoin’s strongest September performance since 2012, with an approximate monthly rise of 8%. Technical analysts indicate that BTC has exited a descending wedge formation on short-term charts — a promising structure that could signal a potential push toward $120,000 if confirmed.
This advance is particularly remarkable given the historically low volatility setting. Historically, Bitcoin tends to underperform in September, only to rally in October, November, and December.
However, despite this latest breakout, bitcoin’s third-quarter performance has fallen short compared to its competitors. BTC observed roughly 7% gains in Q3 2025, a stark contrast to Ethereum’s impressive 68% surge during the same timeframe.
Eric Trump forecasts a “phenomenal” Q4
Bitcoin’s rally has spurred fresh insights from Eric Trump, executive vice president of the Trump Organization and an avid supporter of cryptocurrency.
In recent discussions, Trump reaffirmed his ambitious $1 million price target, encouraging investors to buy now.
“Volatility is your ally. Buy immediately. Close your eyes. Hold it for the next five years,” Trump advised.
He contended that global monetary easing and an expanding money supply would drive bitcoin to significantly higher levels. He also highlighted seasonality, noting that Q4 has historically been bitcoin’s strongest quarter, averaging around 85% gains in previous cycles.
These remarks align with his August address at a Bitcoin conference in Hong Kong, where he remarked, “We haven’t even begun to explore the depths.”
These comments come as the Trump family has expanded their bitcoin and cryptocurrency interests over the past year. Eric Trump and his brother Donald Trump Jr. co-founded American Bitcoin, a mining enterprise where the Trump siblings hold approximately 20% ownership, while Hut 8 controls the remainder. The company recently secured $220 million in funding and is set to list on Nasdaq this September via a merger with Gryphon.
Bitcoin to reach $200,000 this year?
Historically, the fourth quarter has witnessed some of bitcoin’s most significant rallies — averaging around 85% gains from 2013 to 2024. Recent years have adhered to this trend: bitcoin rose 48% in Q4 2024 and 57% in Q4 2023, as per market data.
In earlier bull cycles, the increases were even more substantial, with Q4 2017 yielding a 215% rise and Q4 2020 exploding by 168%, each laying the groundwork for considerable follow-up rallies.
Earlier this month, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee reaffirmed his $200,000 target for 2025, and prediction markets still show a slight probability of achieving that milestone by the end of the year.
Additionally, supportive monetary policies seem to be emerging: with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, risk assets — including cryptocurrencies — may be well-positioned for another year-end rally.
