Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a “shock move” that will bring back BTC price increases — but not until 2026.
Key points:
The next Bitcoin price bottom is anticipated to occur in 2026, according to new analysis.
Decreasing trading volume diminishes the likelihood of a short-term bull market revival.
With sell-side pressure easing, prices might surge to $99,000 as a consequence.
BTC price bottom: Not until 2026?
In a recent YouTube analysis on Thursday, crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicted a year of lower lows for BTC/USD.
Bitcoin might not touch its long-term bottom until October 2026.
Summarizing prevailing market conditions, Pizzino noted community expectations that BTC/USD will establish a bounce zone over the next 11 months.
“As I mentioned, we’ve got some time,” he stated.
“I think it’s still too early to determine whether this will be a low that leads to a new all-time high or one that triggers a major lower high due to our position in the 18-year cycle.”
Pizzino observed risk-asset behavior concerning the 18-year cycle theory relating to real estate markets.
To reach its reversal zone, he emphasized Bitcoin trading volume declining similarly to the trend seen from late 2022 into 2023, which initiated the current bull market.
“This is when these shock moves occur because the majority are not paying attention,” he remarked.
Pizzino noted that a significant trend change in the short term seems unlikely, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) serving as robust resistance and trader risk appetite absent, as evidenced by a balanced long/short ratio.
Sellers hold the key to $99,000 rebound
Regarding investor behavior, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant predicts a potential consolidation phase before a new market surge.
Related: Bitcoin retail inflows to Binance ‘collapse’ to 400 BTC record low in 2025
In its most recent weekly report to Cointelegraph on Tuesday, titled “The Calm Before The Vol,” researchers highlighted falling exchange inflows from large-volume entities.
“The proportion of total deposits from large players has dropped from a 24-hour average peak of 47% in mid-November to 21% today,” it stated.
“Simultaneously, the average deposit has decreased by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC currently. Selling pressure diminishes when large players reduce their transfers to crypto exchanges.”
CryptoQuant anticipated that ongoing decreases in selling pressure could propel BTC/USD back to $99,000.
“This level represents the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, serving as price resistance during bear markets. Beyond this level, critical price resistances are $102K (one-year moving average), and $112K (the Trader On-chain Realized price),” it added.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
