The value of Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to go through cyclical rises and declines, leading to a potential drop of up to 70% during the upcoming market downturn, according to Vineet Budki, the CEO of Sigma Capital.
Budki indicated to Cointelegraph at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, UAE, that a BTC retracement of 65% to 70% could occur in the next two years, stemming from traders’ lack of understanding of the asset they hold. He stated:
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it falls to $70,000. The issue is that individuals are unaware of its utility, and when people invest in assets they don’t understand, they tend to sell first; that’s where the selling pressure arises.”
Nonetheless, Budki predicts that Bitcoin will hit $1 million or more per coin within the next decade, explaining that user adoption will increase through a blend of price speculation and, more importantly, practical BTC applications.
Analysts, industry leaders, and investors are still pondering when Bitcoin will achieve a seven-figure price and whether the market dynamics that have characterized BTC cycles since 2009 remain applicable in 2025.
Related: The Bitcoin white paper turns 17 as the first red October in 7 years approaches for BTC
Has Bitcoin surpassed the four-year cycle?
According to Arthur Hayes, a market analyst and co-founder of BitMEX, the four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer relevant.
Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s price is more significantly affected by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and money supply growth, rather than cyclical trends.
Other analysts highlight increasing institutional adoption and the participation of financial institutions as a stabilizing influence that mitigates price volatility and calms the markets.
Financial institutions, including governments and digital asset treasury companies’ exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and cryptocurrency exchanges, collectively own over 4 million BTC, which represents nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
However, Seamus Rocca, the CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, shared with Cointelegraph that he believes the four-year cycle is still in effect, as investors currently perceive BTC as a risk-on asset, despite its characteristics as a store of value.
Magazine: Bitcoin expected to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds: Trade Secrets
