The value of Bitcoin (BTC) is set to undergo cyclical surges and declines, potentially seeing a drop of up to 70% during the next market correction, as stated by Vineet Budki, CEO of the venture firm Sigma Capital.
Budki mentioned that a BTC retracement of 65% to 70% is anticipated over the next two years, as traders lack a full understanding of the asset they possess. He conveyed this to Cointelegraph at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, UAE, stating:
“Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it falls to $70,000. The real issue is that people are unaware of its utility, and when individuals acquire assets that they do not fully comprehend, they tend to sell them impulsively; this generates selling pressure.”
Notwithstanding this, Budki predicts that Bitcoin will surpass $1 million per coin within the next decade, and emphasized that user adoption will rise through a blend of price speculation and, more crucially, real-world BTC applications.
Analysts, industry leaders, and investors continue to speculate on when Bitcoin will achieve a seven-figure valuation and whether the market dynamics that have characterized BTC cycles since 2009 are still relevant in 2025.
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Has Bitcoin surpassed the four-year cycle?
According to Arthur Hayes, market analyst and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer applicable.
He noted that Bitcoin’s price is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates and money supply growth, rather than historical cyclical patterns.
Other analysts point to increasing institutional adoption and the involvement of financial institutions as stabilizing elements that help mitigate price volatility and soothe the markets.
Financial entities, including governments, digital asset treasury firms, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and crypto exchanges jointly hold over 4 million BTC, representing nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s total supply, as reported by BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
Nevertheless, Seamus Rocca, CEO of crypto-friendly bank Xapo Bank, shared with Cointelegraph that the four-year cycle is still relevant since investors currently regard BTC as a risk-on asset, despite its attributes as a store of value.
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