Key takeaways:
Enhanced regulatory clarity for digital assets, underscored by this week’s influential SEC–CFTC roundtable, may bolster investor trust.
A temporary resolution to the potential US government shutdown could alleviate risk aversion and elevate Bitcoin prices.
Labor market data and anticipations surrounding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve might reignite momentum towards the $120,000 threshold.
Bitcoin (BTC) regained the $114,000 level on Monday, recovering some losses from the prior week. Notably, this rebound occurred despite significant outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), leading investors to question the sustainability of the rally and the factors that might propel Bitcoin to the $120,000 mark.
Approximately $900 million exited US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, raising moderate concern among traders, especially as long-term whales liquidated 3.4 million BTC. Data from Glassnode indicates that about 90% of the coins transacted were from profit-taking, occurring for the third time in this cycle, heightening the probability of “a cooling phase ahead.”
SEC-CFTC joint roundtable, US government shutdown and labor market data
This week features three pivotal events that could affect investor sentiment toward Bitcoin, starting with a joint roundtable on digital asset regulation led by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). SEC Chair Paul Atkins will inaugurate the event on Monday.
Taking place in Washington, D.C., the meeting aims to clarify regulatory jurisdiction, listings, and exchange oversight. Panelists include Jeff Sprecher, CEO of ICE-NYSE, Adena Friedman, CEO of Nasdaq, and Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, along with executives from leading crypto-focused companies and representatives from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citadel.
Another factor that could impact Bitcoin’s price is the looming possibility of a US government shutdown on Oct. 1. President Donald Trump has arranged a meeting with congressional leaders on Monday to attempt to prevent the crisis. If Congress fails to act, thousands of federal workers may face furloughs, and various services, including small-business grants, would be interrupted.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has responded negatively when traders adopt a risk-averse posture. About $1.7 trillion in “discretionary” spending funding agency operations is due to expire at the end of the fiscal year on Tuesday. The House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill on Sept. 19 to fund government agencies through Nov. 21, leaving final approval up to the Senate.
The next significant factor that might trigger a Bitcoin surge to $120,000 is labor market data, a key focus for the Federal Reserve following August’s core inflation that matched market expectations at 2.9%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release the JOLTS survey of job openings on Tuesday, followed by the nonfarm payroll report on Friday.
Weakness in the labor market could redirect investors towards safer assets, such as gold and short-term government bonds.
Related: Poland advances strict crypto bill, sparking public backlash
US Strategic Bitcoin Reserves hopes create a psychological support
Another reason Bitcoin has maintained the $109,000 level is the optimism surrounding plans for a United States Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Jan3 founder Samson Mow recently remarked that the Trump administration is “pushing forward” budget-neutral strategies to acquire Bitcoin. Some analysts also emphasize the potential for a reassessment of the US Treasury’s gold reserves.
By adjusting gold’s official value from the $42.22 level established by Congress in 1973, the US Treasury might unlock nearly $1 trillion in credit, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has downplayed speculation regarding such a move. Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic about the government’s ability to successfully implement a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the near future.
Key factors that could propel Bitcoin beyond $120,000 include clearer regulations in the digital asset sector, a temporary agreement to prevent the impending US government shutdown, and mitigated risks reflected in forthcoming US job market data. Additionally, even the potential for the US Treasury to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserves provides a psychological support level for the market in case broader circumstances turn unfavorable.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
