Here’s the rewritten content while keeping the HTML tags intact:
Key takeaways:
$30.3 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire at year-end, with the majority of call (buy) bets positioned significantly above the $89,000 to $94,000 range.
Bearish strategies remain preferred unless BTC surpasses $94,000, as prices above $88,000 have diminished more than half of the put (sell) option bets.
As we approach the end of the year, Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry is causing doubt among bulls regarding a price resurgence. A total of $30.3 billion in open interest depends on Bitcoin’s 8:00 am UTC price this Friday, which will determine if bears continue to dominate after five weeks of consolidation near $89,000.
Deribit accounts for 80% of the overall open interest, followed by CME in Chicago at 11%. However, most of the $21.7 billion in call (buy) options are likely to expire worthless this Friday, as bulls were unprepared when Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 psychological support level in November. Less than 6% of Deribit’s call options are aimed at $92,000 or lower upon expiry.
Even excluding the $2.5 billion in open interest for strike prices of $150,000 or more, data indicates a significant concentration between $100,000 and $125,000. Traders often target optimistic strike prices to capture volatility premiums through covered call strategies, which explains the robust interest at levels as high as $200,000.
Nonetheless, while bulls may have underestimated how long it would take to reclaim $94,000, bearish strategies may have overreached by clustering bets between $75,000 and $86,000. If Bitcoin remains above $88,000 on Friday, over 50% of the $7.7 billion in put options on Deribit will expire worthless. Nevertheless, bearish positioning continues to be advantageous as long as BTC stays below $94,000.
Investors are becoming increasingly cautious regarding risks in the tech sector, especially following Oracle’s (ORCL US) debt protection costs escalating to their peak levels. The company has issued nearly $26 billion in bonds this year, according to Bloomberg. Oracle’s shares are currently 40% lower than their all-time high in September.
Bitcoin bulls persist in increasing positions as year-end expiry approaches
Investors are factoring in a greater likelihood of stimulus initiatives from the US, following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s confirmation of plans to introduce a $2,000 tariff rebate for lower-income individuals in early 2026. Moreover, US President Donald Trump has indicated that whoever succeeds Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May should prioritize reducing interest rates.
Bitcoin traders have responded by increasing call option positions in the $90,000 to $120,000 range as year-end approaches, indicating sustained optimism despite several unsuccessful attempts to regain $94,000 over the past five weeks.
Related: Bitcoin rallies hindered by diminishing Fed rate cut prospects and weakening US macro conditions
$94,000 is the crucial threshold determining Bitcoin’s future momentum
Here are four potential scenarios for the year-end BTC options at Deribit expiry based on current pricing trends:
$86,000 to $90,000: The net outcome favors put (sell) instruments by $2.4 billion.
$90,001 to $94,000: The net outcome favors put (sell) instruments by $1.5 billion.
$94,001 to $96,000: The net outcome favors put (sell) instruments by $650 million.
$96,001 to $98,000: A balanced result between call and put options.
A Friday expiry below $90,000 would be highly detrimental for Bitcoin bulls. However, as long as Bitcoin’s price remains beneath $94,000, the likelihood continues to favor bearish options strategies.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as, nor should it replace, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Cointelegraph. While we aim for accuracy and timeliness, Cointelegraph does not assure the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information contained herein. This article may include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from your reliance on this information.
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions. While we seek to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
